央行Q3货政例会点评：“量宽价稳”的狭义流动性格局或持续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy regular meeting continues the "supportive" monetary policy idea. While "maintaining abundant liquidity", it also "prevents fund idling", and the pattern of "ample quantity and stable price" in narrow - sense liquidity may continue. The mention of "implementing various monetary policy measures and fully releasing policy effects" does not necessarily mean that the focus of monetary policy is on existing policies, and incremental policies can also be expected [1][3]. - The cross - quarter capital market may be relatively loose. The cross - quarter capital price will first rise and then fall. The central bank's injection, fiscal expenditure, and smooth bank financing may contribute to a loose cross - quarter capital pattern [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Central Bank Operations: Active Injection of Medium - term Liquidity Continues - Short - term liquidity: In the past week (9/22 - 9/26), the central bank's open - market pledged reverse repurchase had a net injection of 6406 billion yuan. As of 9/26, the balance of the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase was 24674 billion yuan, slightly higher than the seasonal level in previous years. In the next week (9/28 - 9/30), the due amount of the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase is 5166 billion yuan, and the central bank may continue to support short - term liquidity [11]. - Long - term liquidity: In the past week, the central bank renewed 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF, with 3000 billion yuan due, resulting in a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. MLF has had a net injection for 4 consecutive months [12]. 3.1.2 Government Bond Issuance: The Net Payment of Government Bonds in the Next Week is 212.1 Billion Yuan, with Small Supply Pressure - Net payment of government bonds: In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 128.6 billion yuan, including a net repayment of 59.4 billion yuan for treasury bonds and a net payment of 188.1 billion yuan for local bonds. In the next week, the expected net payment of government bonds is 212.1 billion yuan, with a net payment of 157.3 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 54.8 billion yuan for local bonds. The overall net payment pressure is small, and the net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday [19]. - Issuance rhythm and progress of government bonds: As of 9/26, the net financing progress of treasury bonds is 81.1%, a decrease of 2.2% compared with the previous week, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 is about 1.26 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of new local bonds is 83.1%, an increase of 3.0% in the past week, and the remaining issuance space in 2025 is about 0.88 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of refinancing special bonds is 99.8%, and the remaining issuance space in 2025 is 4.3 billion yuan. The issuance rhythm of new local bonds is faster than that in 2024 but slower than that in 2022 and 2023 [20]. 3.1.3 Bill Market: Bill Interest Rates Slightly Recovered at the End of September At the end of September, bill interest rates rose significantly. On 9/26, the 3M direct - discount rate for national - share bills was 1.45% (1.33% on 9/19), and the transfer - discount rate was 1.34% (1.25% on 9/19); the 6M direct - discount rate was 0.92% (unchanged from 9/19), and the transfer - discount rate was 0.85% (0.86% on 9/19) [30]. 3.1.4 Capital Review: Cross - quarter Capital Costs First Rose and Then Fell - Capital sentiment index: Affected by the new - share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange and the central bank's reverse - repurchase injection falling short of expectations, the capital market tightened in the middle of the week, and the capital sentiment index reached 60 on Wednesday. After the central bank's large - scale injection of 14D reverse repurchase on Friday, the cross - quarter capital market significantly loosened [33]. - Capital price: Affected by the new - share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange and the central bank's reverse - repurchase injection falling short of expectations, capital interest rates rose from Tuesday to Thursday. After the central bank's large - scale injection of 14D reverse repurchase on Friday, the cross - quarter capital market significantly loosened. On 9/26, DR001 decreased by about 15bp to 1.32% compared with 9/19, and DR007 increased by 2bp to 1.53% [36]. - Capital stratification: Affected by the cross - quarter period, the spread between DR007 and DR001 widened by 17BP compared with the previous week. During the past week, two new shares were subscribed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and GC001 rose to a maximum of 1.69% [37]. - Pledged - repurchase trading volume and overnight trading volume ratio: The overnight trading volume ratio is still relatively high but has decreased compared with the previous week. Affected by the cross - quarter period, overnight trading volume decreased significantly. Generally, "rolling overnight" is still a good strategy under the condition of loose capital. On 9/26, the overnight trading volume ratios of DR, R, and GC were 89%, 37%, and 86% respectively, still at a relatively high level [42]. - Capital supply and demand: Currently, the net financing of large - scale banks is still at a seasonal high. On 9/26, the net financing of the banking system was 3.8 trillion yuan, including 4 trillion yuan from large - scale banks, and joint - stock banks turned to net financing. The net financing demand of core institutions in the non - banking system remained basically stable, and the net financing scale of funds, securities firms, insurance companies, and other products was 5.54 trillion yuan, slightly higher than that on 9/19. The net financing scale of core net - financing providers in the non - banking system (money - market funds, wealth - management products, and other institutions) decreased slightly. In terms of different maturities, large - scale banks' net financing is mainly overnight; funds and securities firms' net financing is mainly R001; insurance companies and other products have longer financing maturities, mainly R007; money - market funds have a small amount of net financing in R001 and a large amount of net financing in R007 and R014 [46]. 3.1.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit: Continuous Net Repayment, and the Long - term Liability Pressure of Banks May Be Controllable - Issuance situation: In the past week, the total issuance of certificates of deposit was 673.6 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 308.6 billion yuan. As of 9/26, the cumulative net financing of certificates of deposit for the whole year was about 574 billion yuan. In terms of different issuers, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit in the past week was in the order of state - owned banks (313 billion yuan)> city commercial banks (236.1 billion yuan)> joint - stock banks (201.5 billion yuan)> rural commercial banks (36.1 billion yuan). In terms of different maturities, the weighted issuance term of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased slightly in the past week, and the weighted issuance term of state - owned, joint - stock, city, and rural commercial banks was 0.43 years [53]. - Primary and secondary market prices: The issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit of different maturities for state - owned and joint - stock banks remained basically stable. The average issuance interest rates of state - owned banks for 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y in the week were 1.59%, 1.58%, 1.65%, 1.68%, and 1.69% respectively. The secondary - market yield of certificates of deposit increased slightly. On 9/26, the 1Y AAA certificate of deposit's maturity yield was 1.69%, up 1BP from 9/19 [58].