金银周报-20250928

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold: The driving factors have switched, and attention should be paid to the risk of a U.S. government shutdown. The short - term impact of the government shutdown is the biggest driver and risk. If the risk is smoothly passed, it may enter a monthly - level high - range oscillation. The previous judgment that the gold price of $3700 has fully priced in the expected interest rate cut this year remains valid [3]. - Silver: The silver - to - gold ratio continues to decline. The price of silver has risen faster, and the structural opportunity of precious metals is greater than the overall driving force. The upward elasticity of the silver price on a monthly basis will be significantly greater than that of gold. The first target price of Shanghai silver has been achieved, and the second target is 11,590, with the silver - to - gold ratio expected to further repair to below 80 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - Price: This week, London gold rose 2.91%, and London silver fell 6.55%. The silver - to - gold ratio dropped from 87 to 83. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.82%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.2% (2 - year 3.63%), and the U.S. dollar index was 98.19 [3]. - Spread - Overseas Spot - Futures Spread: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to -$31.02 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -$35.5 per ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 converged to -$0.333 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -$0.565 per ounce [9][12]. - Domestic Spot - Futures Spread: This week, the gold spot - futures spread was -3.16 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver spot - futures spread was -81 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [16][18]. - Monthly Spread: This week, the gold monthly spread was 6.5 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 58 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [22][26]. - Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost: The costs of cross - month positive arbitrage for gold and silver in different contract combinations (such as buying TD and selling Shanghai gold, buying Shanghai silver 12 - month and selling 6 - month) are calculated, including fixed costs and floating costs [30][31][32][33]. - Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - COMEX Gold: The inventory increased by 0.48 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 39.95% [36]. - COMEX Silver: The inventory increased by 6.3 million ounces to 530.34 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio decreased to 36.9% [38]. - Domestic Futures: The gold futures inventory increased by 8397 kilograms, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 1.18 tons to 1158 tons [40]. - CFTC Non - Commercial Positions: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver increased slightly [42]. - ETF Positions: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 30.06 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 156.7 tons [47][49]. - Silver - to - Gold Ratio: This week, the silver - to - gold ratio dropped from 87 to 83 [52]. - COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Precious Metal Lease Rates: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was -0.15%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 14.97% [54]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - Gold and Real Interest Rates: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [59]. - Inflation and Retail Sales Performance: No specific summary content is extracted from the text, but relevant data charts are presented [63]. - Non - Farm Employment Performance: No specific summary content is extracted from the text, but relevant data charts are presented [66]. - Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions: No specific summary content is extracted from the text, but relevant data charts are presented [71]. - Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index: No specific summary content is extracted from the text, but relevant data charts are presented [73]. - Fed Interest Rate Cut Probability: The table shows the implied overnight interest rates, expected interest rate hikes/cuts, and their probabilities at different time points [75].