聚烯烃周报：需求跟进偏弱，压制聚烯烃上行空间-20250928
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-28 09:33
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - L, PP neutral; L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; no cross - variety strategy [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Demand follow - up for both PE and PP is weak, suppressing their upward space. PE supply is increasing while demand improvement is limited, and inventory reduction is slow. PP demand is slowly recovering, and it is restricted by supply and has limited profit space [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: L main contract closed at 7159 yuan/ton (-10), PP main contract at 6893 yuan/ton (-5). LL North China spot was 7140 yuan/ton (+10), LL East China spot 7140 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6750 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was -29 yuan/ton (+10), LL East China basis -19 yuan/ton (+10), PP East China basis -143 yuan/ton (+5) [1] - Upstream Supply: PE operating rate was 81.8% (+1.5%), PP operating rate 75.5% (+0.6%) [1] - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit was -1.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), PP oil - based production profit -631.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), PDH - made PP production profit -264.0 yuan/ton (-39.2) [1] - Import and Export: LL import profit was -56.7 yuan/ton (-1.9), PP import profit -532.6 yuan/ton (-1.9), PP export profit 15.3 US dollars/ton (+0.2) [1] - Downstream Demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 32.9% (+6.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 52.4% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 43.9% (+0.3%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 61.4% (+0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Supply is increasing as many restarted devices and few new planned maintenance. Demand has a slight improvement in pre - holiday stocking, but follow - up is insufficient. Cost support from oil prices is weak, and the market is in a volatile trend [2] - PP: Supply may increase as the restart of devices is expected to exceed maintenance. Demand is slowly recovering, but support is limited. Cost is affected by weak oil prices and strong propane, and profit restricts the downward space [3] 3.3 Strategy - Single - side: L, PP neutral [4] - Inter - period: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4] - Cross - variety: None [4]