化工周报：国庆外轮集中到港，EG持货意愿偏弱-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [5] - Inter - period: None [5] - Inter - variety: None [5] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic ethylene glycol (EG) market was weak, with a slight rebound in the middle of the week due to marginal improvement in demand. However, overall buying interest was weak, and trading volume decreased approaching the holiday. The spot basis declined. It is expected that the port inventory of EG will increase significantly after the National Day holiday as foreign ships are expected to arrive in large numbers, leading to poor inventory - holding intentions among traders before the holiday. [2] - On the supply side, the overall operating load of EG in mainland China is at a high level. Although the total load has decreased with the implementation of maintenance of syngas - based plants this week, overseas supply losses are still significant. [2][4] - On the demand side, the load of weaving and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased, and the sales of filament have improved significantly due to pre - holiday restocking. However, the increase in polyester load is limited, and the sustainability of the demand recovery needs to be observed. [3] - The overall near - end EG balance sheet has no major contradictions, and the port inventory is expected to remain at a low level. But there is significant pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is expected to increase significantly after the holiday. [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - This week, the domestic EG market was weak. There was a marginal improvement in demand in the middle of the week, leading to a slight rebound, but overall buying interest was weak. Trading volume decreased approaching the holiday, and the spot basis declined. At the beginning of the week, the EG futures market was weak. Some traders with contract shortages participated in restocking. However, due to the expected large number of foreign ship arrivals during the National Day holiday, the intention of traders to hold inventory before the holiday was poor, and the spot basis of EG quickly declined. The low - level transaction of the EG spot basis was at a premium of 56 - 60 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. [2] 3.2 Supply - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 73.08% (a 1.85% decrease from last week), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) is 74.36% (a 5.02% decrease from last week). With the implementation of maintenance of syngas - based plants this week, the total load of EG decreased, but the overall domestic total load is still at a high level. Overseas, there are still many supply losses, and more than two sets of plants in Saudi Arabia are still in a shutdown or low - load operation state. [2][4] 3.3 Demand - The load of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 70.0% (a 4.0% increase from last week), the load of texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 81.0% (a 3.0% increase from last week), the polyester operating rate is 90.30% (a 1.10% decrease from last week), and the direct - spun filament load is 93.50% (a 0.40% decrease from last week). The inventory days of POY decreased by 7.9 days to 13.8 days, the inventory days of FDY decreased by 7.0 days to 15.7 days, and the inventory days of DTY decreased by 3.7 days to 25.8 days. The operating rate of staple fiber factories is 95.4% (unchanged), and the inventory days of staple fiber factory equity decreased by 1.8 days to 9.3 days; the operating rate of bottle - chip factories is 67.8% (a 4.2% decrease from last week). This week, the load of weaving and texturing increased, orders improved marginally, and combined with pre - National Day restocking demand, the sales of filament increased significantly, and the product inventory of polyester factories decreased substantially. The polyester load decreased slightly due to the impact of a typhoon in South China and has now restarted. However, the inventory of grey cloth is still high, and the pressure remains. It is necessary to focus on the duration of the subsequent demand improvement. In terms of polyester load, it is expected that the load of filament and staple fiber will continue to stabilize and slightly increase in September, and the load increase of bottle - chips may be limited due to the rotation of maintenance and restart. [3] 3.4 Inventory - According to the data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 46.7 tons (a 0.2 - ton increase from last week); according to the data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 40.0 tons (a 1.7 - ton increase from last week). The total planned arrivals at the main ports of East China this week are 9.3 tons, and the arrival volume is moderate. Longzhong inventory has slightly increased, and the main port inventory is at a low level. [4]