能源化工胶版印刷纸周度报告-20250928

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on Offset Printing Paper - Report Date: September 28, 2025 - Analyst: Shi Yining - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0022533 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of offset printing paper fluctuated little and mainly moved within a range. The spot market supply and demand may remain weak due to the gradual resumption of production by large manufacturers and weak overall demand. However, the current negative factors have been fully priced in the market, and there is a possibility of short - term marginal improvement in the supply - demand situation, mainly from the concentrated release of publishing tender orders and the improvement of the overall sentiment in the commodity market. The current downward trading value is limited, and there is a risk of a reversal of the consensus expectation. The price trend is mainly volatile, and investors should pay attention to the opportunities of buying at lows and selling at highs [54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - This Thursday, the inventory days of domestic double - offset paper increased by 1.26% compared with last Thursday, and the weekly increase rate expanded by 0.25 percentage points. The overall industry start - up level rebounded, the supply of goods increased, but the market demand was limited, and the paper mill inventory further accumulated. - This week, the operating load rate of domestic double - offset paper was 51.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, and the weekly increase rate expanded by 0.10 percentage points. The operation of an individual production line in Shandong recovered, while the operation levels of other large - scale paper mills changed little, and the industry operating load rate increased slightly [6]. Market Trend - The daily average price of mainstream double - offset paper (70g high - white) in the market had a week - on - week ratio of 0 and a year - on - year ratio of - 12.5%. - In the spot market, the prices of most 70g double - offset papers in Shandong and Guangdong markets remained unchanged week - on - week, except for 70g Chenming Yunbao and 70g Huaxia Taiyang in the Guangdong market, which decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The pre - tax and after - tax gross profits of double - offset paper decreased week - on - week. In the futures market, the prices of OP2601.SHF and OP2603.SHF increased, and the 1 - 3 price spread decreased. The basis of some varieties decreased [12][13]. Supply - Demand Data Supply - In 2024, the domestic double - offset paper industry's production capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57%. - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry's output was 173,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 51.5%. - In August, the domestic double - offset paper import volume was about 18,900 tons, maintaining a low level [22][28][38]. Demand - This week, the domestic double - offset paper sales volume was 168,600 tons. - In August, the domestic double - offset paper export volume was about 56,800 tons [33][38]. Inventory - In August, the social inventory and enterprise inventory of double - offset paper showed a slight accumulation. This week, the enterprise inventory of double - offset paper was 363,500 tons [33][44]. Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [50]. Market Judgment - Supply: Domestic production this week was 173,200 tons with a capacity utilization rate of 51.5%, and the import volume in August was about 18,900 tons, remaining at a low level. - Demand: This week's domestic sales volume was 168,600 tons, and the export volume in August was about 56,800 tons. - View: The futures market was mainly in a volatile state last week, closing at 4,230 yuan/ton on Friday night. The spot market had little fluctuation, and the trading volume in the futures market was limited. In the future, the supply - demand in the spot market may remain weak, but there is a possibility of short - term marginal improvement. The current downward trading value is limited, and there is a risk of a reversal of the consensus expectation. - Valuation: According to the current spot price, the current valuation does not provide delivery profit, and the overall valuation is low. The current futures price is close to the production cost of some enterprises with a low degree of integration. - Strategy: The price trend is mainly volatile. Pay attention to the opportunities of buying at lows and selling at highs [54].