能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, fuel oil prices rose significantly, with the price center gradually reaching a two - month high. For high - sulfur fuel oil, market transactions improved slightly, the premium increased, Middle East shipments remained high, but Russian exports continued to decline. Due to recent attacks and sanctions, nearly one - third of Russian refinery capacity was offline, so supply factors still supported high - sulfur fuel oil. If Russian exports continue to face obstacles, high - sulfur fuel oil valuations may continue to rise. For low - sulfur fuel oil, there is no obvious supply gap in the Asia - Pacific region, and spot shipments are normal. The August Singapore bunker sales data was good, providing some support on the demand side. On the domestic market, the quota issue has been fully priced in by the market, but inventory continued to accumulate in the Zhoushan area, and there were still warehouse receipts on the futures market. In the short term, the price may be relatively weaker than that of high - sulfur fuel oil. - Valuation: FU is estimated to be in the range of 2700 - 3000, and LU is estimated to be in the range of 3400 - 3650. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU will continue to be strong in the short term, and LU will mainly follow the upward trend. 2) Inter - period: FU and LU will maintain the current structure. 3) Inter - variety: FU cracking will fluctuate at a high level; the LU - FU spread may still contract slightly in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Refinery Operations: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [6] - Global Refinery Maintenance: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU devices, hydrocracking devices, FCC devices, and coking devices over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [9][11][13][14] - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume: It shows the monthly production of fuel oil in China, the monthly production of low - sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries, and the monthly domestic commercial volume of fuel oil over different years, but no specific analysis is provided. [20] 3.2 Demand - Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China over different years, but no specific analysis is provided. [23] 3.3 Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: It shows the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [26][28][29] 3.4 Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, 1% fuel oil in north - western Europe, and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [34][35][36][38][39][41] - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in north - western Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in the New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil prices in the USAC over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [43][44] - US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in the New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil prices in the USAC over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [44] - Paper and Derivative Prices: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in north - western Europe, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps, Singapore 380 bunker swaps, and domestic futures contracts (FU and LU) over different time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [47][48][51] - Fuel Oil Spot Spreads: It shows the Singapore high - low sulfur spread, Singapore viscosity spread, and other spreads over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [57][58][59] - Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spreads: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [62][63][64] - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads: It shows the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [66] 3.5 Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China over different years, but no specific analysis is provided. [71][73] - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions, but no specific analysis is provided. [75] - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions, but no specific analysis is provided. [77] 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Review: This week, Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices rose significantly, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, domestic FU and LU were relatively stronger than the international market, and the premium continued to recover. - Logic: This week, spot prices at home and abroad rebounded significantly. On the domestic market, FU started to rebound from the bottom, and the internal - external spread continued to repair. The same situation occurred for LU. Due to the relatively small new batch of quotas, the domestic LU maintained a stable spread with the international spot market. [80] - Internal - External Spreads: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, and domestic futures contracts (FU and LU) against Singapore over different dates, but no specific analysis is provided. [81] 3.7 FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - It shows the trading volumes and open interest of fuel oil main - continuous contracts, fuel oil continuous contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous contracts, and related sub - contracts over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [94][96][99] 3.8 FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - It shows the changes in the number of FU and LU warehouse receipts over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [105][106]