螺纹钢、热轧卷板周度报告-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The demand in the peak season is not strong, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric furnace production cuts [3][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - level - Overseas Macro: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market continued the soft - landing trading [5][9] - Domestic Macro: "Qiushi" re - mentioned "anti - involution", aiming to rectify the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises, and policy expectations resurfaced [5][8] 3.2 Black Industry Chain - The peak - season demand is likely to be weak. Traders change from demanders in the off - season to suppliers in the peak season, increasing the supply pressure of steel. To keep inventory stable, supply needs to be reduced through price decline and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric furnace production cuts as scrap steel for electric furnaces is a high - cost iron element [5] 3.3 Rebar Fundamental Data - Basis and Spread: The 10 - 01 contract of rebar continued the reverse - arbitrage logic. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3260 yuan/ton, the 01 contract price was 3114 yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 146 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 92 yuan/ton [14][17] - Demand: New - home sales remained low, indicating weak market confidence, while second - hand home sales remained high, showing rigid demand. Land transaction area also remained low. The demand showed seasonal recovery but was at a low level compared to the same period [18][21][22] - MS Weekly Data: Demand bottomed out and inventory decreased slightly. Scrap steel remained a high - cost iron element, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric furnace production cuts [23][29] - Production Profit: Due to the revision of production - restriction policy expectations, steel mill profits decreased. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 166 yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 130 yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 83 yuan/ton [31][35] 3.4 Hot - rolled Coil Fundamental Data - Basis and Spread: The 10 - 01 contract of hot - rolled coil showed a positive - arbitrage widening trend. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3370 yuan/ton, the 01 contract futures price was 3313 yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 57 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 82 yuan/ton [37][40] - Demand: It was the seasonal peak season, and demand increased month - on - month. However, the production schedules of the home - appliance and automobile industries were poor, so there was a risk of weak demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The export profit was opened due to the widening of the internal - external price difference, and exports remained high [41][42][43] - MS Weekly Data: Supply remained high, and inventory continued to accumulate. The production of hot - rolled coils remained at a high level [45][46] - Production Profit: Due to the revision of policy expectations, steel mill profits decreased. Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 112 yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 179 yuan/ton [49][51] 3.5 Variety Spread Structure - Attention should be paid to the opportunities of the widening of the cold - hot spread and the medium - plate hot - rolled coil spread [52] 3.6 Variety Regional Difference - The report provided the regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil among different cities such as Hangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Tianjin [60][61][63] 3.7 Cold - rolled Coil and Medium - plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report presented the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - plates from 2021 to 2025 [66][67]