Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Weekly Outlook [1] - Analyst: Zhang Guangshuo [2] - Date: September 28, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The real - world demand for iron ore still provides support, and ore prices are expected to oscillate at relatively high levels [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Supply - Seaborne shipments remain at a relatively high year - on - year level, and the freight rate from Brazil to China has increased on a month - on - month basis [5]. - The recent shipments of mainstream mines have recovered to a year - on - year high, and freight rates have risen. Brazilian freight rates may be driven by Vale. Shipments from non - mainstream mines such as India and South Africa have increased on a month - on - month basis. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region is relatively low [17][19][21][30]. - Global weekly shipments were 33.248 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.483 million tons but a year - on - year increase of 0.509 million tons. YTD cumulative global shipments were 1.167207 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8832 billion tons or 8%. Brazilian shipments were 8.363 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 million tons or 7.7%. Australian shipments were 18.57 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.246 million tons or 8.49% [4]. 3.2 Demand - Considering the pre - holiday production demand for intermediate products, blast furnace operations have been increasing, and the immediate demand for raw material spot remains strong. Iron and steel production and the output of five major steel products have both increased on a month - on - month basis. The price of scrap steel has continued to rise on a month - on - month basis, helping to widen the scrap - iron price difference as iron ore prices have fallen from their highs [5][33][36]. - The iron - making output of 247 enterprises was 2.4236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0134 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1853 million tons [4]. 3.3 Macro - level - Overseas interest rate cuts were announced as expected, but the market had already priced this in, so the impact was limited after the announcement. The domestic macro - economic outlook remains positive, providing some support for the valuation of black commodities [5]. 3.4 Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract oscillated strongly, closing at 790.0 yuan/ton. The open interest was 509,000 lots, a decrease of 65,600 lots. The average daily trading volume was 28,400 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 55,800 lots [7]. 3.5 Spot Price Performance - Spot prices have fallen from their recent highs. For example, the price of PB powder at Qingdao Port decreased from 799 yuan/ton last week to 785 yuan/ton this week, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [12]. 3.6 Inventory - The inventory of imported ore at 45 ports has once again exceeded 140 million tons [40][42]. 3.7 Downstream Profits - The prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded, leading to a downward revision of the paper profit [44]. 3.8 Spot Category Price Differences - The price of PB powder has fallen more than other varieties this week [46]. 3.9 Futures Spread - The 1 - 5 futures spread has stabilized [50]. 3.10 Basis Performance - As the futures price has fallen from its high, the basis for the 01 and 05 contracts has widened on a month - on - month basis [54].
铁矿石周度观点-20250928
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-28 09:39