动力煤产业链周度报告-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pit - mouth quotation of thermal coal continues to rise, and the supply and demand situation shows certain fluctuations. The domestic supply of thermal coal is increasing, while the demand side has different trends in various sectors, with power demand weakening and chemical demand rising. The inventory situation also varies among different entities, and the transportation and freight index show corresponding changes [4][6][30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thermal Coal Fundamentals Data - The pit - mouth quotation of thermal coal continues to rise [4]. 3.2 Thermal Coal Supply - Domestic Supply: As of September 26, the output of 462 sample mines was about 39.557 million tons, a 0.5% week - on - week increase, and the capacity utilization rate continued to rise. In August 2025, the total raw coal production was 390.497 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase and a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. The raw coal production in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia decreased synchronously [6][12]. - Global Supply: The total global port departure volume increased slightly, with the shipment of Australian coal rising. The volume of coal floating to China increased mainly from Russia. As of September 19, the main arrival volume of thermal coal was 7.9283 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 482,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 413,200 tons [19][21][23]. 3.3 Thermal Coal Demand - Power Demand: It weakened significantly. The average daily consumption of 25 provinces this week was 5.21 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 490,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 330,000 tons. The inventory of coastal eight - province power plants increased slightly, and the inland 17 - province power plants accumulated inventory [27][30][33]. - Metallurgical and Construction Demand: The blast furnace start - up production decreased, and the support of metallurgical demand weakened. The capacity utilization rate of cement clinker increased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year, but the construction demand decreased significantly [28]. - Chemical Demand: It increased month - on - month [31]. 3.4 Thermal Coal Demand Substitution - The new energy power generation capacity weakened, and the thermal power generation increased year - on - year. The contribution of alternative energy sources decreased [40][43]. 3.5 Total Thermal Coal Demand - The power consumption demand provided obvious support, and the coal consumption for construction and metallurgy increased month - on - month [45]. 3.6 Thermal Coal Inventory - Mine Inventory: As of September 26, the mine inventory of sample enterprises was 3.151 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 188,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.779 million tons, still at a relatively high historical level [47]. - Port Inventory: The inventory of 55 ports decreased slightly [50]. 3.7 Thermal Coal Transportation - The freight index of thermal coal decreased slightly [53].