新能源及有色金属周报：供需数据变化不大，工业硅多晶硅宽幅震荡运行-20250928

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon have changed little. Industrial silicon inventory has started to accumulate slightly, and the overall inventory remains at a high level. The price fluctuates with policy disturbances and overall commodity sentiment. Polysilicon is also in a wide - range shock state, affected by factors such as self - regulatory production cuts and policies [2][3][4]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the price may fluctuate widely. For polysilicon, in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and in the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to go long on dips [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis - Price: In the week of September 26, the industrial silicon futures opened high and closed low. The spot prices continued to rise slightly. As of September 25, the price of SMM East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton week - on - week; 441 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; 3303 silicon was 10,500 - 10,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [2]. - Supply: The supply side changed little this week, with the weekly output remaining flat at 58,200 tons. The number of metal silicon furnaces in operation decreased by 1 compared with last week. As of September 25, the number of operating furnaces was 310, with an overall operating rate of 38.94% [2]. - Demand: The overall capacity utilization rate of downstream aluminum alloys declined slightly. The output of aluminum strips and foils and aluminum rods decreased. The operating rate of organic silicon was 71.2%, with some devices reducing production or under maintenance. The weekly output of DMC decreased slightly. The weekly output of polysilicon increased by 100 tons [3]. - Inventory: The total industry inventory increased slightly. As of September 26, the inventory in the metal silicon futures delivery warehouse was 250,665 tons, an increase of 1,295 tons from September 19. The total industry inventory was 944,900 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from last week [3]. - Cost: The raw material prices changed little this week, and the overall cost remained stable [3]. - Profit: Self - power - generation enterprises still had good profits. After the rebound of the futures price, most enterprises were not losing money according to cash cost accounting, but some still faced cost pressure according to full - cost accounting [3]. - Strategy - Industrial silicon's fundamentals have changed little. In the short term, there is no clear policy drive, and the price may fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. For trading strategies, it is mainly range - bound operation [4]. Polysilicon - Spot Market - Price: This week, the polysilicon price index was 52.4 yuan/kg. The price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 50.1 - 55 yuan/kg, and the price of granular silicon was 50 - 51 yuan/kg. The overall market sentiment cooled down, and the futures price was in a wide - range shock and trended weakly [4]. - Supply: The weekly output of polysilicon increased slightly this week, reaching 31,100 tons. The production reduction in October may be less than expected, and attention should be paid to the production reduction in Southwest China during the dry season and the impact of industry policies [4]. - Demand: In September, the domestic silicon wafer production schedule was good. It is expected to start reducing production in October. The weekly production schedule of silicon wafers increased slightly this week. The production schedule of battery cells in September increased by 2.3% compared with August, and the production schedule of components decreased [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 226,000 tons, a change of 10.8% month - on - month; the silicon wafer inventory was 16.23GW, a change of - 3.8% month - on - month [6]. - Cost: The cost changed little this week. Most enterprises' full - cost after tax was about 45,000 yuan/ton, except for some enterprises with lower electricity prices [6]. - Strategy - The self - regulatory production cuts of polysilicon are average, and the overall fundamentals are average. There is great pressure on inventory accumulation in recent months. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to go long on dips [6].