黑色建材周报：旺季需求不振，钢价震荡偏弱-20250928

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "shockingly weak" [3] Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic strong policy expectations pulse boost low - valued commodity prices, causing significant disturbances to the market. Due to holiday restocking, steel supply and demand improved this week with continuous inventory reduction, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure during the holiday. Considering the seasonal weakening of steel demand later, supply needs to be suppressed to relieve future inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory and raw material cost support [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Price and Spread - The rebar main contract 2601 closed at 3099 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2601 closed at 3301 yuan/ton [1][5] Supply - On September 27, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a 0.47 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.22 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 242.36 million tons, a 1.34 - million - ton increase from the previous week and a 17.50 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a 0.86 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 39.40 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [1][22] Consumption - The total apparent demand for the five major steel products was 874.06 million tons, a 2.8% increase from the previous period. Building material consumption increased by 3.4%, and plate consumption increased by 2.5% [1][26] Inventory - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 864.93 million tons, a 9.47 - million - ton increase from the previous week, an increase of 1.1%. The total inventory was 1510.61 million tons, a 9.13 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, a decrease of 0.6%. The apparent consumption was 874.06 million tons, a 2.8% increase from the previous week [1][30] Strategy - The unilateral strategy is "shockingly weak", and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]