燃料油周报：油价呈现反弹态势，FU盘面结构边际走强-20250928

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has shown signs of stabilization, with reduced supply pressure and marginal improvement in refinery demand. However, there is still resistance above the valuation due to potential seasonal consumption decline. The low - sulfur fuel oil market has limited supply pressure, and there are long - term substitution risks, but the downside space is also limited [5]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the short - term outlook is neutral, and the medium - term outlook is downward. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the short - term outlook is neutral, and the medium - term outlook is downward. It is recommended to go long on the FU2511 - 2512 spread at low prices (positive spread trading) [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - With the escalation of the geopolitical situation, crude oil prices rebounded this week, boosting the downstream energy sector. The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil improved marginally, and the cancellation of some FU futures warehouse receipts strengthened the futures market structure. The weekly increase of the FU main contract was 4.36%, and that of the LU main contract was 1.9% [1]. Supply - High - sulfur fuel oil: In September, the expected shipments of high - sulfur fuel oil from Iran are 1280,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 460,000 tons; from Russia, 2.89 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 330,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons; from the Middle East, 2.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 million tons [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: In September, the expected shipments of low - sulfur fuel oil from Nigeria are 530,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 530,000 tons; from Kuwait, 240,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons. Brazilian exports decreased significantly in September. In August, the domestic production of low - sulfur fuel oil for bonded use in Chinese refineries was 1.065 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,000 tons or 4.51%. Overall, the supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is still limited [2]. Demand - Although the impact of US tariffs on shipping demand has not been fully reflected, there is still downward pressure on trade and shipping demand in the medium term. High - sulfur fuel oil demand in the marine fuel sector is more resilient, but the summer power generation demand has not exceeded the seasonal level. The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil in the marine fuel sector is average, and its market share is being gradually replaced [3]. Inventory - This week, the fuel oil inventory in Singapore was 22.804 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10.26%; the fuel oil inventory in Zhoushan Port was 1.19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.19% [4]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward. - Cross - variety: None. - Cross - period: Go long on the FU2511 - 2512 spread at low prices (positive spread trading). - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [6]