烧碱主力下游继续下调接货价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Caustic Soda: The spot price of 32% caustic soda has been continuously decreasing, while the orders for 50% caustic soda have improved and the price has stabilized. The supply is expected to slightly increase next week, and the demand from the main downstream alumina industry is weak, with a strong expectation of a decline in the long - term purchase price next month. The inventory of 50% caustic soda has decreased, but the national liquid caustic soda inventory has increased this week. The non - aluminum demand has a potential for seasonal improvement. The cost support remains, but the chlor - alkali profit is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [1][2]. - PVC: The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. The supply is abundant, and the downstream consumption is limited. The export shows some resilience but may be affected by Indian policies in the fourth quarter. The social inventory is slightly decreasing, but the absolute value is high. The futures price is under pressure from high - level hedging [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Caustic Soda Price & Spread - As of September 26, 2025, the SH main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2528 yuan/ton (- 9), the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 28 yuan/ton (+ 9), the spot price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the spot price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1]. II. PVC Price & Spread - As of September 26, 2025, the main contract closing price of PVC is 4897 yuan/ton (- 38), the East China basis is - 177 yuan/ton (+ 28), the South China basis is - 87 yuan/ton (+ 18), the spot price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China is 4720 yuan/ton (+ 0), and in South China is 4820 yuan/ton (+ 10) [4]. III. Cost Profit - Caustic Soda: As of September 26, 2025, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 725.78 yuan/ton (+ 0.00), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) is 179.78 yuan/ton (+ 0.00), and the single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1508.90 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2]. - PVC: As of September 26, 2025, the single - product production profit of calcium carbide - based PVC is - 783.91 yuan/ton (- 126.66), the single - product production profit of ethylene - based PVC is - 645.37 yuan/ton (+ 6.84), and the export profit of PVC is 7 US dollars/ton (+ 1) [5]. IV. Caustic Soda Supply - As of September 26, 2025, the caustic soda operating rate is 82.50% (+ 0.60%), and the weekly production of caustic soda is 81.29 tons (+ 0.60). Next week, the production may slightly increase as some previously shut - down enterprises resume production and new shutdowns are limited [1][2]. V. Liquid Chlorine Price and Liquid Chlorine Downstream - As of September 26, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 100 yuan/ton (+ 0). The operating rates of downstream products such as propylene oxide and epichlorohydrin have decreased, while the operating rate of dichloromethane has increased, and the weekly production of chloroform has increased [2]. VI. PVC Supply - As of September 26, 2025, the average operating load of upstream calcium carbide is 64.58% (+ 0.43%), the PVC operating rate is 78.97% (+ 2.01%), and the loss due to shutdown and maintenance is 12.77 tons (- 1.03). The new production capacity is gradually reaching full production, and the supply is abundant [4][5]. VII. Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - The operating rate of the main downstream alumina is 85.95% (- 0.28%), the weekly production of alumina is 185.50 tons (- 0.60), and the port inventory is 7.20 (+ 1.40). The operating rates of non - aluminum industries such as printing and dyeing, viscose staple fiber, white cardboard, and broad - leaf pulp have increased [1]. VIII. PVC Downstream Demand - The comprehensive operating rate of PVC downstream is 47.76% (- 1.50%), among which the operating rate of PVC pipes is 40.43% (+ 1.30), the operating rate of PVC profiles is 38.91% (- 0.52), and the operating rate of PVC films is 63.93% (- 12.99). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 75.92 tons (+ 0.35) [4]. IX. Caustic Soda & PVC Inventory Data - Caustic Soda: The factory inventory of liquid caustic soda in China is 39.12 tons (+ 1.29), and the factory inventory of flake caustic soda is 2.08 tons (- 0.10) [2]. - PVC: The factory inventory of PVC is 31.82 tons (+ 1.20), the social inventory of PVC is 53.47 tons (+ 0.01), including 48.34 tons in East China (+ 0.13) and 5.13 tons in South China (- 0.12) [5].