主产区降雨减缓，原料将回升

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, with less rainfall in production areas, raw materials are expected to increase, but raw material prices may decline, and the cost - side support will weaken. Demand will drop during the holiday, and the supply - demand will turn loose, with inventory de - stocking slowing or re - accumulating [3] - For butadiene rubber, the upstream of cis - butadiene rubber still has device maintenance in October. The supply is abundant, and the demand will be stable after the raw material replenishment by downstream. It will show a pattern of both supply and demand booming after the holiday [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Raw Materials and Spreads: Thailand glue is 54.80 Thai baht/kg, cup - lumps is 51.05 Thai baht/kg, Yunnan glue is 14,600 yuan/ton, Hainan glue is 14,500 yuan/ton. RU basis is - 820 yuan/ton, NR basis is 836 yuan/ton, BR basis is - 80 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: Yunnan - produced whole latex in Shanghai market is 14,650 yuan/ton, Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed is 14,850 yuan/ton, Thai 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 1,860 US dollars/ton, Indonesian 20 standard rubber is 1,750 US dollars/ton, and Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price is 11,700 yuan/ton [1] - Supply: The inbound rate of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is 8.50%, the general trade inbound rate is 9.62%, and the bonded warehouse inbound rate is 2.47%. The high - cis butadiene rubber operating rate is 66.41%, and the output is 26,665 tons [1] - Production Profit: The production profit of Thai STR20 is - 221.00 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 is 2,622.00 yuan/ton, cis - butadiene rubber is - 225 yuan/ton, and carbon - four extraction butadiene is 1,861.10 yuan/ton [2] - Demand: The operating rate of all - steel tires is 66.39%, semi - steel tires is 72.64%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province is 39.16 days, and semi - steel tires is 46.15 days [2] - Inventory: The natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port is 461,188 tons, the social inventory is 1,112,557 tons, the RU inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 149,420 tons, and the NR futures inventory is 42,942 tons. The upstream butadiene port inventory is 27,750 tons, the cis - butadiene rubber production enterprise inventory is 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory is 5,700 tons [2] Market Analysis - Natural Rubber: With less rainfall in production areas, raw materials will increase, but prices may fall. During the holiday, demand will decline, and the supply - demand will turn loose, with inventory de - stocking slowing or re - accumulating [3] - Butadiene Rubber: The upstream of cis - butadiene rubber has device maintenance in October. The supply is abundant, and the demand will be stable after raw material replenishment. It will show a pattern of both supply and demand booming after the holiday [3] Strategy - RU and NR are neutral. The tight spot price pattern remains, but inventory de - stocking may slow. The valuation is low, and the downside space is limited after the new state reserve release news [4] - BR is neutral. Supply - side support exists due to device maintenance. Demand will decline during the holiday. High inventory may lead to a slight decline following natural rubber [4]