节前备货情绪难延续，关注出口动态变化

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when it is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The pre - holiday stocking sentiment in the urea market is difficult to sustain, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. The domestic spot market of urea sees manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. Although the transaction volume has improved after prices in Shandong and Henan fell below previous lows, the sustainability is weak. Domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply and demand of urea remain relatively loose. The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. The export window period in September is ongoing, and the export rhythm is accelerating [1][2] Section Summaries Price and Spread - Urea futures prices: The urea main contract closed at 1669 yuan/ton (- 5). Spot prices: The market price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1610 yuan/ton (+ 0), in Shandong was 1600 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1600 yuan/ton (- 20). The price of small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis of urea in Shandong was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 5), in Henan was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 5), and in Jiangsu was - 49 yuan/ton (+ 5). Urea production profit was 70.0 yuan/ton (- 10.0), and export profit was 1069.6 yuan/ton (- 88.4) [1] Upstream Supply - As of September 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (unchanged). The urea production is running at a high level [1][2] Downstream Demand - As of September 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 35.27% (- 3.36%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.58% (+ 3.8%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+ 0.5). The domestic demand for urea is weak. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers shows low enthusiasm for purchasing, with sporadic purchases at low prices, and melamine has rigid - demand purchases [1][2] Urea Inventory - As of September 28, 2025, the in - factory inventory of enterprises was 121.8 million tons (+ 5.3), and the port inventory was 49.6 million tons (- 2.0). The in - factory inventory of urea continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia [1][2]