Xinda Securities·2025-09-28 09:40Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is expected to continue improving due to the traditional peak season combined with production restrictions [1][2] - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions and overall profit decline, the steel demand is anticipated to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies supporting growth in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing [3][2] - The industry is likely to benefit from a tightening supply situation and increasing industry concentration, leading to a stable overall supply-demand landscape [3][2] Supply Situation - As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sampled steel companies is 90.9%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.4236 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.34% [25] - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.536 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.33% [25] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.741 million tons as of September 26, with a week-on-week increase of 2.79% [34] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 104,000 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 2.41% [34] Inventory Situation - The social inventory of five major steel products was 10.892 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.10% [42] - The factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.214 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.72% [42] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,497.6 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.28% [48] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 14 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 36.36% [57] - The average cost of pig iron was 2,366 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [57] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 787 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 1.87% [73] - The price of coking coal at the port was 1,710 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 100 yuan/ton [73] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies with strong cost control and scale effects [3][2] - Companies such as Shandong Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3][2]