贵金属周报：美财长呼吁降息，多位美联储官员放鸽-20250928

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [3] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [3] - Options: On hold [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the week of September 26, 2025, precious metal prices continued their strong performance, with silver prices breaking through $46 per ounce, reaching a 14 - year high. The Fed's future interest - rate cut path remains uncertain, but the market is more inclined to bet on consecutive rate cuts. Meanwhile, the resurgence of US tariffs has increased risk - aversion sentiment, boosting precious metal prices [1]. - Based on the current situation, gold may continue a relatively strong volatile trend, and silver shows strong performance based on rate - cut expectations. There is a need to repair the gold - silver ratio, but attention should be paid to position control and strict stop - loss execution [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - aspect - In the week of September 26, 2025, precious metal prices continued to be strong. Fed Chair Powell emphasized the two - way nature of policy risks. US Treasury Secretary Besent believes that interest rates are still too high and need to be cut by at least 100 - 150 basis points. Many Fed officials have a dovish stance. The market is more inclined to bet on consecutive rate cuts, with an 87.7% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October according to Fedwatch. US President Trump plans to impose high tariffs on various imported goods starting from October 1 [1]. Fundamental - aspect - In the week of September 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold warehouse receipts changed by 8397 kilograms to 65826 kilograms, and silver warehouse receipts changed by - 1177 kilograms to 1158266 kilograms. Comex gold inventory changed by 482874.92 ounces to 39946410.45 ounces, and Comex silver inventory changed by 6301249.93 ounces to 530344533.33 ounces. Gold SPDR ETF holdings increased by 11.16 tons to 1005.72 tons, and silver SLV ETF holdings increased by 156.86 tons to 15362 tons. As of September 23, 2025, gold speculative net - long positions increased by 0.13% to 266749 contracts, and silver net - long positions increased by 1.43% to 52276 contracts. The CSI 300 index rose 1.07% compared to the previous week, the electronic components sector index related to precious metals fell 1.34%, and the photovoltaic sector rose 0.47%. The photovoltaic price index reached 15.73 as of September 22, 2025, up 0.53 from the previous period, and the photovoltaic manager index was 119.66 as of September 15, down 5.43 month - on - month [2]. Strategy - aspect - Gold: The Fed's rate - cut path is unclear, but dovish signals from many officials and the resurgence of US tariffs may lead to a relatively strong volatile trend in gold prices, with the price range between 855 yuan/gram - 875 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver: Silver prices are strong based on rate - cut expectations, and there is a need to repair the gold - silver ratio. One can continue to buy on dips for hedging, but pay more attention to position control and strict stop - loss execution [3]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [3]. - Options: On hold [3]