化工周报：节前补库需求边际改善，关注持续性-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are short - term neutral and medium - term bearish. For PX, the supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is significantly weakened, with the shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation and weakened support below. For TA, the near - term fundamentals are okay, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure due to new device commissioning expectations. For PF, the short - term supply - demand is better than the raw material end, but the upward momentum is weak. For PR, the spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate in a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [5][6]. 2. Core View of the Report - Cost side: Oil prices rebounded this week. Geopolitical factors such as Ukraine's attacks on Russia and EU sanctions on "shadow oil tanker fleets" affected the market. The development of the geopolitical situation and the OPEC meeting during the National Day should be followed up [1]. - PX: China's PX operating rate is 86.7% (up 0.5% week - on - week), and Asia's is 78% (down 0.3% week - on - week). The domestic PX load has gradually recovered, but the PXN is still under pressure due to the postponement of fourth - quarter maintenance plans and capacity expansion of some devices. The supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is weakened [1]. - TA: China's PTA operating rate is 76.8% (unchanged week - on - week), and the spot processing fee is 205 yuan/ton. The PTA load has changed little, and the processing fee has recovered. The inventory accumulation in October - November is narrowed, but there is large inventory accumulation pressure in December [2]. - Demand: The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 70.0% (up 4.0% week - on - week), and the polyester operating rate is 90.3% (down 1.1% week - on - week). The weaving and texturing loads have increased, and the filament sales have improved, but the polyester load increase is limited, and the sustainability of demand improvement should be concerned [2]. - PF: The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber operating rate is 95.4% (unchanged week - on - week). The supply - demand of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than the raw material end in the short term, and the demand at the low price is okay [3]. - PR: The bottle - chip factory operating rate (based on maximum capacity) is 67.8% (down 4.2%). The supply - demand pressure is still large under the commissioning pressure of new devices, and the spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate in a range [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Spread - The report presents the trends and spreads of TA, PX, PF, and PR's main contracts, as well as the processing fees of PX, PTA, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, etc. [10][11][12][16][26][29] PX and PTA Supply - It shows the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX loads in China and Asia [46][47][52]. Inventory - Displays the social inventories of PTA and PX, and the warehouse inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [57][60][66]. Demand - Covers the sales of filaments and short - fibers, the polyester load, the operating rates of looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the profits of filaments [68][72][74][77][82][84]. PF Supply, Demand and Inventory - Includes the load of polyester staple fiber, the factory's equity inventory days, the physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, the operating rates of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, and their production profits and inventories [92][96][97][98][101]. PR Supply, Demand and Inventory - Presents the load of polyester bottle - chips, the factory's bottle - chip inventory days, the spot and export processing fees, and the export profits of bottle - chips [110][111][115].