Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and jujube industries is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - For apples, the current inventory level is low, providing price support. The new season is about to start, and the market has high expectations for the opening price, with the price expected to be stronger in the west than in the east [4] - For jujubes, if the yield and quality fall short of expectations, the upward trend may continue. Otherwise, the jujube futures price will face a volatile pattern with limited upside and strong downside support [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract this week was 8,401 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 128 yuan/ton or 1.55% [1] - Spot: In Shandong's Qixia area, the price of 80 first and second-grade apples was 7,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. In Shaanxi's Luochuan area, the price of 70 semi-commodity apples was 9,600 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week [1] Recent Market Information - Cold storage inventory: As of September 24, 2025, the national main apple-producing area cold storage inventory was 121,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 41,400 tons. The remaining inventory was concentrated in Shandong [2] - Production area: The inventory spot market was stronger in the east than in the west. The price of mid-late varieties in the west remained stable at a high level. In Shandong, the old Fuji inventory was not cleared, and the general cargo price was slightly weak [2] - Sales area: The number of early morning arrivals at the Guangdong Chalong market decreased slightly compared to last week. As the Double Festival approached, the market began to stock up, and the arrival volume increased slightly, but the overall sales were average [2] Market Analysis - The Double Festival stocking is in the later stage, and the late Fuji in the east and west is entering the bag-removing period. The inventory in Shandong has not been cleared, and the general cargo price is slightly weak. The western pickling Fuji is gradually being listed, and the price is stable at a high level [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The current inventory level is low, and the price has bottom support. The new season is about to start, and the market has high expectations for the opening price, with the price expected to be stronger in the west than in the east [4] Jujube Market News and Important Data - Futures: The Jujube 2601 contract rebounded this week. As of September 26, the closing price was 11,285 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 615 yuan/ton or 5.76% [5] - Spot: The purchase price of Xinjiang grey jujubes in the 2024 production season was concentrated between 4.50 - 5.50 yuan/kg, with a reference average purchase price of 5.33 yuan/kg. The price of first-grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [5] Recent Market Information - New season jujubes: The jujube trees in the main production areas are in the sugar-accumulation period. The temperature in Xinjiang has dropped slightly, and no extreme weather has occurred. The market has a relatively clear judgment on the new season's yield trend, and concerns about quality have decreased [6] - Sales area: The arrival volume in the sales area market was low this week. The off-peak to peak-season transition period saw general downstream purchasing enthusiasm and weak Double Festival stocking [6] Market Analysis - The 2024 production season had a large jujube yield and high inventory, but the quality was poor. The market is gradually transitioning from the off-season to the peak season, but the inventory pressure remains, and the supply-demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. If the yield and quality fall short of expectations, the upward trend of jujubes may continue. Otherwise, the jujube futures price will face a volatile pattern with limited upside and strong downside support [8]
农产品周报:苹果新季呈现西强东弱,红枣关注产量和质量变化-20250928
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-28 09:52