煤价震荡蓄势，回调即布局良机

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The supply side is constrained, with the sample coal mine capacity utilization rates for thermal coal at 93.8% (+0.5 percentage points) and coking coal at 86.46% (+1.81 percentage points) [11][46] - Demand has shown a decrease in daily consumption in inland and coastal provinces, with inland provinces down by 37.80 thousand tons/day (-11.14%) and coastal provinces down by 12.50 thousand tons/day (-5.61%) [11][47] - The report anticipates that coal prices will continue to strengthen due to rigid supply constraints, seasonal demand increases, and maintenance impacts on transportation lines [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of September 27, the market price for thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port is 703 RMB/ton, up by 4 RMB/ton [29] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1710 RMB/ton, an increase of 100 RMB/ton [31] 2. Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is reported at 93.8%, while for coking coal it is 86.46% [46] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased, while coal inventories have increased [47] 3. Industry Performance - The coal sector has shown a decline of 1.44% this week, underperforming compared to the broader market [14][17] - The report highlights that the coal sector remains characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, indicating a strong investment opportunity [12][14] 4. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal sector is likely to experience a tightening supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with high barriers to entry and strong cash flow characteristics for quality coal companies [12][11] - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with stable operations and strong performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [12]