黑色金属周报合集-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a pattern of lackluster demand during the peak season, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric - arc furnaces. The iron ore market has existing support from real - world demand, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate at relatively high levels. The coking coal and coke market has support from the current fundamentals and is expected to fluctuate strongly. The ferroalloy market has cost support, and prices will fluctuate [3][6][80][136]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Viewpoint: Demand during the peak season is lackluster, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric - arc furnaces [6]. - Macro - level: Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market continued the soft - landing trading. Domestically, the "Qiu Shi" article reignited policy expectations for anti - involution [8]. - Black Industry Chain: The peak - season demand is likely to be lackluster. During the peak season, traders change from demanders to suppliers, increasing the supply pressure of steel. To maintain inventory levels, supply needs to be reduced, which requires price declines and profit compression. Since scrap steel used in electric - arc furnaces is a high - cost iron element, attention should be paid to the production - reduction rhythm of electric - arc furnaces [8]. - Thread Steel: The 10 - 01 contract continued the reverse - spread logic. New - home sales remained at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Although demand increased seasonally, it was still at a low level compared to the same period. MS weekly data showed that demand bottomed out and inventory decreased slightly. Scrap steel remained a high - cost iron element, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction rhythm of electric - arc furnaces. Due to the revised expectations of production - restriction policies, steel - mill profits decreased [18][22][28][36][38]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The 10 - 01 contract's positive - spread widened. Although it was the seasonal peak season, demand in the home - appliance and automotive industries was poor, and there was a risk of lackluster demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The export profit margin was opened due to the widened internal - external price difference, and exports remained at a high level. MS weekly data showed that supply remained at a high level, and inventory continued to accumulate. Due to the revised policy expectations, steel - mill profits decreased [44][49][50][54][59]. - Variety Spreads: Attention should be paid to the opportunities for the spread between cold - rolled and hot - rolled coils and the spread between medium - plate and hot - rolled coils to widen [62]. - Regional Spreads: There were price differences in different regions for various steel products [69]. - Cold - Rolled and Medium - Plate: Relevant supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [76]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Viewpoint: Real - world demand support still exists, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate at relatively high levels [80]. - Supply: Overseas shipments were still at a relatively high level year - on - year, and the freight rate from Brazil to China increased month - on - month. The recent shipments of mainstream mines recovered to a high level year - on - year, and freight rates increased. The freight rate in Brazil might be driven by Vale. Shipments from non - mainstream mines such as India and South Africa increased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region was relatively low [81][94][96][98][106]. - Demand: Considering the pre - holiday production demand of intermediate products, blast - furnace operation continued to increase, and the immediate demand for raw - material spot was still strong. The production of hot metal and the output of five major steel products both increased month - on - month. The price of scrap steel continued to rise month - on - month, helping the scrap - iron price difference to recover [82][109][112]. - Inventory: Port inventory exceeded 140 million tons again [116]. - Downstream Profits: Due to the rebound in coking coal and coke prices, the paper profit decreased [121]. - Spot Category Spreads: The price of PB ore dropped more significantly compared to other ores this week [123]. - Paper Month - to - Month Spreads: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread stabilized [127]. - Basis Performance: As the paper price fell from its peak, the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts widened month - on - month [131]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Viewpoint: The current fundamentals provide support, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [136]. - Supply: After the military parade, domestic upstream production quickly recovered. The customs - clearance volume at the Mongolian coal ports of Ganqimaodu and Ceke remained at a high level. The actual supply changed little in the past week, but the expected supply - side intervention was volatile, causing significant fluctuations in paper prices [136]. - Demand: Pre - holiday restocking of raw materials had begun, and the current spot demand was relatively strong [137]. - Macro - level: Overseas interest - rate cuts were announced as expected, and the paper market had already priced in this factor, so the impact was limited after the event. Domestically, macro - expectations were still strong, providing some support for the valuation of black - series products [137]. - Viewpoint Summary: From the perspective of the current fundamentals, both supply and demand were strong at the margin, and there was also strong domestic expectation support at the macro - level. The short - term valuation was expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [137]. - Fundamental Data Changes: Data on supply, demand, inventory, profit, and warehouse receipts of coking coal and coke were provided [139]. - Coking Coal Fundamentals: Data on coking coal supply (weekly, monthly, and Mongolian coal customs - clearance), inventory (pit - mouth and port) were provided [140].