有色及贵金属周报合集-20250928

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report Copper - Copper has long - term multi - allocation value due to enhanced raw material supply disturbances, and it is expected that the future price center will move up. Both macro and fundamental factors are favorable for the long - term strengthening of copper prices. [6][8] - In the short term, attention should be paid to changes in supply - demand and the macro - aspect. Aluminum - Aluminum is in a grinding phase after a small rebound and then a callback. It is recommended to hold a light position before the holiday. In the medium - term, there is a bullish view on the unilateral price, volatility direction, and smelting profit of aluminum. [81] Alumina - The center of alumina continues to move down. The subsequent downward space depends on the marginal surplus of the supply side. [82] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of SHFE copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper has rebounded. COMEX copper price volatility is around 13%, and SHFE copper volatility has risen to about 16%. [10][14] - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened, the LME copper spot discount has narrowed, and the COMEX copper C structure has also narrowed. [17][19] - Position: The positions of SHFE copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper have all increased, with SHFE copper's position increasing by 6.70 lots to 546,000 lots. [20] - Capital and Industry Position: CFTC non - commercial long net positions have decreased, and LME commercial short net positions have also declined. [26] - Spot Premium: Domestic copper spot premiums have weakened, and Yangshan Port copper premiums have declined. The US copper premium remains at a high level, while Rotterdam and Southeast Asian copper premiums are stable. [30][32] - Inventory: The global total inventory has decreased, with domestic social inventory and LME inventory both decreasing, while COMEX inventory has increased. [33][34] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has rebounded, and the SHFE copper position - to - inventory ratio is at a neutral level in the same period of history. [38] Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Imports have increased year - on - year, and processing fees have weakened marginally. Port inventories have decreased. [41][43] - Recycled Copper: Imports and domestic production have increased year - on - year. The scrap - refined spread has widened, and import losses have expanded. [44][49] - Blister Copper: Imports have decreased, and processing fees are at a low level. [53] - Refined Copper: Production has increased more than expected, imports have increased, and the import loss of copper spot has expanded. [56][58] Demand End - Capacity Utilization Rate: In August, the capacity utilization rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of wire and cable continued to decline in the week of September 25. [61] - Profit: Copper rod processing fees are at a low level in the same period of history, and copper tube processing fees have declined. Copper plate and strip processing fees and lithium - ion copper foil processing fees have also weakened. [63][65] - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. [66] - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods has rebounded, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased. [69] Consumption End - Apparent consumption is good. The power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy industries are important supports for copper consumption. The power grid investment growth rate has accelerated. [74][76] - Air - conditioner production has resumed growth, and new energy vehicle production is at a high level in the same period of history. [77] Aluminum and Alumina Trading End - Spread: The A00 spot premium has strengthened, and the alumina spot premium has weakened. The near - month spread of SHFE aluminum has remained stable. [85][88] - Volume and Position: The trading volume and position of SHFE aluminum and alumina main contracts have slightly declined. [91] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum has declined, and that of alumina has decreased and is at a historically low level. [96] Inventory - Bauxite: Port inventories and inventory days have increased. The inventory of 43 sample enterprises has increased in August. The port shipping volume of Guinea and Australia has declined, and the sea - floating inventory has increased. The outbound volume shows differentiation, and the inbound volume has declined. [101][106][107] - Alumina: The center of alumina continues to move down, and the inventory has increased. [82] - Aluminum: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased. [81]