Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices showed a slight rebound followed by a callback, still in a grinding phase. It is recommended to hold a light position before the holiday. In the medium - term trend, there is a bullish outlook on the unilateral price, volatility direction, and smelting profit of aluminum [3]. - Alumina prices continued to move downward, and attention should be paid to the downside space. The key lies in the rigid production when the loss area of production capacity expands further [4]. - The overall fundamentals of aluminum are still not bad, with downstream consumption showing a certain degree of improvement during the consumption peak season in September [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum - Price Trend: Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly under the influence of the sharp rise in copper prices, but then declined again with the adjustment of copper prices. The short - term trend is still in a grinding phase [3]. - Fundamental Indicators: As of September 25, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 22,000 tons to 614,000 tons compared with the previous week. As of September 26, the weekly total output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils increased for the sixth consecutive week, with a cumulative year - to - date decline of - 1.39%, and the decline was still moderately expanding compared with the previous week. As of September 24, the output of aluminum profiles continued to increase steadily, and the overall sample production schedule weakened slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 40 yuan/ton to 320 yuan/ton compared with the previous week, currently at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years [3]. - Downstream Consumption: In September, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0% compared with the previous week. The stronger downstream sectors are aluminum plates and strips, aluminum cables, and primary aluminum alloys; the relatively weaker sectors are aluminum profiles, aluminum foils, and recycled aluminum alloys [3]. Alumina - Price Trend: Alumina first rose slightly and then declined in the past week, with a large divergence in the market around the 2900 mark, and the overall center of gravity was still downward [4]. - Spot Market: The spot market remained weak. The winning bid price of a regular tender by an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang on Monday was lower than the previous one. Manufacturers' willingness to ship and the willingness to accept tender transactions were relatively strong [4]. - Price Changes: As of September 26, the average prices of alumina in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Inner Mongolia continued to decline. The FOB forward spot price in Australia continued to decline to $321/ton, and the import window remained open, with a profit of about 40 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Changes: As of September 25, the all - caliber social inventory of alumina in Aladdin increased by 78,000 tons to 3.797 million tons compared with the previous week; the inventory in the Steel Union's caliber also continued to accumulate, with the all - caliber inventory reaching 4.505 million tons, increasing by 44,000 tons compared with the previous week [4]. Transaction - related - Term Spread: The spot premium of A00 aluminum strengthened, while the spot premium of alumina weakened. The average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum changed from - 20 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) changed from - 70 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from 21 yuan/ton to - 21 yuan/ton, and the premium of Henan alumina to the current month changed from 96 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton [9]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between the near - term months of Shanghai aluminum remained stable [10]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The open interest and trading volume of the main Shanghai aluminum contract decreased slightly. The open interest of the main alumina contract decreased slightly and was at a historical high; the trading volume of the main alumina contract decreased slightly [14]. - Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the main Shanghai aluminum contract declined; the open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina continued to decline and was at a historically low level [20]. Inventory - related - Bauxite: - Port inventory and inventory days increased. As of September 26, the port inventory of imported bauxite in the Steel Union's weekly data showed an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same [25]. - In August, the port inventory and port inventory days of bauxite in China according to the Aladdin caliber continued to accumulate [25]. - The port shipping volume of Guinea decreased, and the floating inventory increased. As of September 26, the weekly port shipping volume of Guinea decreased by 215,300 tons compared with the previous week, and the floating inventory increased by 714,400 tons; the port shipping volume of Australia decreased by 153,300 tons, and the floating inventory increased by 447,400 tons [31]. - The outbound volume showed differentiation, and the inbound volume declined. As of September 19, the outbound volume of bauxite from Weipa + Gove Port in Australia decreased by 252,200 tons compared with the previous week; the outbound volume of bauxite from Boffa + Kamsar Port in Guinea increased by 217,800 tons; the inbound volume of bauxite under the SMM caliber decreased by 837,100 tons [36]. - Alumina: The total national inventory continued to accumulate. The total inventory increased by 44,000 tons compared with the previous week. The in - plant inventory of alumina increased slightly, the alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants increased slightly, the port inventory decreased, and the inventory at the platform/on - the - way increased slightly [45]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: There was a reduction in inventory. As of September 25, the weekly social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 22,000 tons to 614,000 tons [53]. - Aluminum Rods: The spot inventory and in - plant inventory showed differentiation this week [58]. - Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Strip - Foils: As of August, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles decreased slightly, while the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly; the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plates, strips, and foils increased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio also increased slightly [61]. Production - related - Bauxite: In August, the supply of domestic bauxite showed differentiation in different calibers. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite production decreased slightly. The supply of imported bauxite was still an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. The production of bauxite in Shanxi decreased slightly, while the production in Henan increased slightly in the Steel Union's caliber, and decreased in the SMM caliber. The production of bauxite in Guangxi decreased slightly in both calibers [66][70]. - Alumina: The capacity utilization rate remained stable, but the fundamental situation of loose supply has not been reversed. As of September 26, the total operating capacity of alumina in the country was 96.7 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 100,000 tons. This week, the domestic production of metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.855 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with the previous week, still at a relatively high level in recent years [74]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The operating capacity remained at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased. As of August, the operating capacity continued to be at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit repair. As of September 25, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum in the Steel Union's caliber was 852,700 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared with the previous week. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the proportion of molten aluminum increased seasonally, and the supply pressure decreased [77]. - Downstream Processing: - The output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils increased slightly, with a weekly increase of 2,700 tons [79]. - The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased, with a weekly decrease of 500 tons. The load of aluminum rod plants increased slightly, and the weekly output of aluminum rods increased by 600 tons [81]. - The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream enterprises increased slightly, reaching 63%. The operating rate of aluminum plates and strips increased slightly, the operating rate of aluminum foils remained at a high level, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles remained unchanged. The operating rates of aluminum cables, recycled aluminum alloys, and primary aluminum alloys increased [82][88]. Profit - related - Alumina: The smelting profit declined marginally. This week, the profit of alumina decreased slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina in the Steel Union's caliber was 158.3 yuan/ton, maintaining a relatively good level. In terms of different provinces, the profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit performance in Guangxi was better than that in other regions [90]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors interfered with market expectations. The complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies increased uncertainty and interfered with market expectations [105]. - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased, but the downstream processing profit was still at a low level. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 40 yuan/ton this week, but the overall downstream processing profit remained low [106]. Consumption - related - Import Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum narrowed [115]. - Export: In August 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 8,000 tons. The export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade policy adjustments, and the export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed differentiation [117][120]. - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand for primary aluminum and aluminum rods showed certain changes, and the transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [124][128].
铝,氧化铝产业链周度报告-20250928
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-28 10:50