豆粕：震荡，规避国庆长假风险，豆一，新豆上市，市场预期政策支持

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Next week (09.29 - 09.30), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate, and investors are advised to avoid risks during the National Day holiday. For soybean meal, trade - related event risks should be avoided. For soybeans, the futures market may shift to expectations of policy support as new soybeans are on the market and spot prices are weak [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market - Price Movement: Last week (09.22 - 09.26), US soybean futures prices were weak due to the Argentine tax - exemption event and Sino - US trade friction concerns. The weekly decline of the US soybean November contract was 1.17%, and that of the US soybean meal December contract was 3.27%. The domestic soybean meal futures price was weak, and the soybean futures price was strong. The weekly decline of the soybean meal m2601 contract was 2.55%, and the weekly increase of the soybean a2511 contract was 0.79% [1]. - Fundamentals: - US soybean net sales decreased week - on - week, which was neutral to bearish. In the week of September 18, the 2025/26 US soybean export shipments were about 510,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 34%; the cumulative export shipments were about 1.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 39%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 720,000 tons, and the next - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were 0. The total was about 720,000 tons, in line with expectations [1]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate decreased week - on - week and was lower than expected, which was bullish. As of the week of September 22, the good - to - excellent rate was 61%, lower than the market expectation, compared with 63% the previous week and 64% last year [1]. - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium, import cost, and crushing margin: As of the week of September 26, the average CNF premium for November Brazilian soybeans increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing margin decreased week - on - week [1]. - The planting progress of new - crop Brazilian soybeans was the same as last year, with little impact. As of the week of September 18, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting progress was about 0.9%, the same as last year [1]. - The Argentine tariff event had a short - term impact on the market, but the follow - up impact was small. The Argentine government announced the cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans and related products from September 22 to October 31, with a maximum tax - exemption amount of $7 billion. The policy ended on September 24 as the tax - exemption target was reached [1]. - The weather forecast for the US and Brazilian soybean - growing regions: In the next two weeks (September 27 - October 11), precipitation will be low and temperatures will be high. This is beneficial for US soybean harvesting but unfavorable for Brazilian soybean planting [1][3]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - Transaction: The trading volume increased week - on - week. As of the week of September 26, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills was about 170,000 tons, compared with about 130,000 tons the previous week [4]. - Pick - up: The pick - up volume decreased week - on - week. As of the week of September 26, the average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 189,000 tons, compared with about 198,000 tons the previous week [4]. - Basis: The basis increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of September 26, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 29 yuan/ton, compared with about - 30 yuan/ton the previous week [4]. - Inventory: The inventory increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of September 19, the inventory of mainstream oil mills was about 1.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4% and a year - on - year decrease of about 19% [4]. - Crushing: The soybean crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to decrease significantly next week. As of the week of September 26, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.27 million tons, and the operating rate was about 63%. Next week (September 27 - October 3), the expected crushing volume is about 1.76 million tons, and the operating rate is 49% [4]. Domestic Soybean Spot Market - New Soybean Listing: New soybeans are on the market, and prices have fallen. In Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans decreased by 240 - 320 yuan/ton week - on - week; in the northern part of the country, the price was flat; in the sales areas, the price of Northeast edible soybeans decreased by 20 - 160 yuan/ton week - on - week [5]. - Harvest in Northeast China: The harvest area of new soybeans in the Northeast has increased, and prices have fallen. Most areas in Heilongjiang have started to harvest new soybeans, mainly early - maturing varieties. The new soybean price is lower than the old soybean price [5]. - State Reserve Auction: The state - reserve soybean auction has resumed and all lots were sold. On September 26, about 19,000 tons were auctioned and all were purchased by protein factories [5]. - Price Adjustment in Sales Areas: The arrival of low - protein Northeast new soybeans in some sales areas has led to price adjustments. Downstream markets are purchasing as needed and waiting for large - scale arrivals of new soybeans [5].