Report Overview - Title: Glass and Soda Ash Weekly Report - Date: September 28, 2025 - Author: Zhang Chi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Short - term oscillatory market, with a weakening bias in the short - term for single - side trading [2] - Soda Ash: Medium - term oscillatory market [3] 2. Report's Core Views Glass - Short - term, it's an oscillatory market. The market was affected by the denial of production cuts by other industry associations and the approach of the National Day holiday, with weakening support on the futures market. In the medium - term, the high premium of the 01 contract restricts market rise, but the seasonal improvement in the real estate market in the fourth quarter justifies a certain premium. Policy support for anti - involution and anti - deflation should be noted [2]. Soda Ash - It is a medium - term oscillatory market. The high production and high inventory situation persists. Either large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass market can drive a positive feedback. Attention should be paid to the actual improvement in the glass industry and the implementation of anti - involution measures in soda ash [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - There were no water - releasing, ignition, or plate - guiding production lines for float glass during the week, with stable weekly production. As of September 25, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons per day) after excluding zombie lines, including 225 in production and 71 on cold - repair shutdown. The daily output of national float glass was 160,200 tons, the same as on the 18th [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines is 11,680 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines is 13,210 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of potentially new - ignited production lines is 14,790 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of potentially复产 production lines is 10,730 tons; and the total daily melting volume of potentially cold - repaired production lines is 8,100 tons per day [6][7][8][9][11]. - Short - term production reduction space is limited, and capacity is expected to change little in the fourth quarter. The current in - production capacity is about 160,000 tons per day, with a peak of 178,000 tons per day in 2021 [13][14]. Demand - As of September 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.5 days, a 1.0% month - on - month increase and a 2.9% year - on - year increase. Most deep - processing orders in major regions across the country have not improved significantly in September, with most orders being scattered, and the overall profit remaining low [2]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million heavy boxes, a 1.553 - million - heavy - box (2.55%) month - on - month decrease and an 18.56% year - on - year decrease. The inventory days were 25.4 days, 0.6 days less than the previous period. Inventories in North China, Central China, and East China generally decreased [2]. Price and Profit - Transactions were stable, with prices rising by 40 - 80 yuan per ton this week. The price in Shahe was around 1,210 - 1,270 yuan per ton; in Hubei, Central China, it was around 1,180 - 1,240 yuan per ton; and in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, East China, it was around 1,320 - 1,400 yuan per ton. The spot price changed little recently, with the basis and the spread between months strengthening. The profit for petroleum coke was about 61 yuan per ton, and the profits for natural gas and coal fuels were about - 151 and 95 yuan per ton respectively [17][21][26]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The domestic photovoltaic glass market had good overall transactions, with prices oscillating strongly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was about 13 yuan per square meter, flat month - on - month; and the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels was about 20 yuan per square meter, also flat month - on - month [46][48]. Capacity and Inventory - There were little recent changes in capacity, with improved trading and declining inventory. There were 408 in - production photovoltaic glass production lines nationwide, with a total daily melting volume of 89,290 tons per day, flat month - on - month and a 14.28% year - on - year decrease. The sample inventory days were about 14.65 days, a 2.50% month - on - month decrease [50][51][55]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - The production facilities of soda ash enterprises were generally stable with minor adjustments, and the supply increased. This week, the domestic soda ash production was 776,900 tons, a 31,200 - ton (4.19%) week - on - week increase. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 89.12%, a 3.59% week - on - week increase. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash reached 430,000 tons per week [3][62]. Inventory - The inventory of soda ash enterprises was about 1.652 million tons, including 730,000 tons of light soda ash and 922,000 tons of heavy soda ash [64][65]. Price and Profit - The market price changed little. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were around 1,210 - 1,400 yuan per ton. The basis and the spread between months showed that the near - month contracts were under pressure due to high production and high inventory. The profit for the joint - alkali process in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 77 yuan per ton, and the profit for the ammonia - alkali process in North China was - 37 yuan per ton [74][75][80].
能源化工玻璃纯碱周度报告-20250928
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-28 10:58