甲醇周报：港口首度快速去库，仍关注库存拐点是否到来-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market shows a pattern where the inland is stronger than the port. The port has started to reduce inventory, but the absolute inventory level remains high, and future changes depend on the announcement of Iran's winter inspection plan. Inland inventory has decreased again, supported by the procurement of mainstream CTO factories in the northwest. Traditional downstream industries have different performance, with acetic acid being affected by high inventory and MTBE seeing an improvement in exports [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data Supply - Port Supply: Overseas methanol operating rate is 63.14% (unchanged), and China's weekly imported methanol arrival volume is 279,000 tons (-75,400 tons), including 235,000 tons (-45,400 tons) in East China and 44,000 tons (-30,000 tons) in South China [1]. - Inland Supply: China's methanol operating rate is 82.50% (+2.59%), with coal - based methanol at 79.24% (+1.81%), natural gas - based at 50.79% (unchanged), and coke oven gas - based at 61.50% (+1.59%). Northwest operating rate is 84.99% (+4.18%), North China at 58.55% (-5.85%), Central China at 80.77% (-7.87%), East China at 82.30% (+2.51%), and Southwest at 83.97% (+5.97%) [1]. Demand - Port Demand: Taicang's average weekly提货量 is 3,268 tons per day (+450 tons), East China's MTO enterprises' weekly procurement volume is 148,600 tons (-16,000 tons), and the operating rate of externally - purchased methanol MTO enterprises is 75.08% (+6.02%) [1]. - Inland Demand: Methanol enterprises' pending orders are 273,022 tons (+39,246 tons). Traditional downstream sample enterprises' raw material procurement volume is 36,300 tons (+5,000 tons), with formaldehyde operating rate at 44.71% (+1.32%), acetic acid at 78.97% (-3.44%), MTBE external sales factories at 64.23% (+0.66%), and dimethyl ether at 7.20% (+0.91%). Northwest MTO enterprises' weekly procurement volume is 88,500 tons (+17,200 tons), and MTO enterprises' operating rate is 88.18% (+4.38%) [2]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Methanol port inventory is 1,492,190 tons (-65,580 tons), including 779,000 tons (-8,000 tons) in Jiangsu, 253,700 tons (-33,200 tons) in Zhejiang, 293,000 tons (-10,000 tons) in Guangdong, and 166,490 tons (-14,380 tons) in Fujian. MTO sample enterprises' methanol inventory is 700,000 tons (-5,000 tons), and downstream sample enterprises' is 186,600 tons (-5,600 tons) [2]. - Inland Inventory: China's inland methanol factory inventory is 319,940 tons (-20,540 tons), including 208,000 tons (-17,500 tons) in the northwest, 19,000 tons (-300 tons) in North China, 15,450 tons (+320 tons) in Central China, 55,800 tons (-2,050 tons) in East China, and 20,000 tons (-1,000 tons) in Southwest [2]. Market Analysis - Port: Port arrivals are lower than expected, and downstream pre - holiday pick - up is acceptable. The port has started to reduce inventory, but the absolute inventory level is still high. Future changes mainly depend on the announcement of Iran's winter inspection plan. The lower support for the port still relies on the window for back - flowing to the inland [3]. - Inland: Transactions in the northwest are still good, supported by the procurement of mainstream CTO factories. Inland inventory has decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland is stronger than the port. In traditional downstream industries, high acetic acid inventory drags down its operating rate, while MTBE exports have improved, leading to a recovery in its operating rate, and formaldehyde operating rate remains stable. In terms of supply, the recovery of coal - based methanol operating rate is still slow, waiting for a further increase in October [3]. Strategy - Single - side: No strategy proposed - Inter - period: Go long on the spread between MA2601 and MA2605 when it is low - Inter - variety: Shorten the spread between PP01 and 3MA01 when it is high [4]