美豆周度报告-20250928

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 to 1150 cents per bushel [5]. Summary by Directory Market Price - China continues to be absent from the US soybean export market, and Argentina's tax - free policy stimulates agricultural exports, squeezing US soybean exports. The US soybean price oscillated and closed lower this week [8][10]. - The US soybean meal price declined this week because Argentina's tax - free policy led global buyers to increase purchases of Argentine agricultural products, putting pressure on US soybean meal exports [11][12]. - The US soybean oil price oscillated lower this week as Argentina's soybean oil exports increased significantly due to the tax - free policy, causing export pressure on US soybean oil [15]. - As of the week ending September 19, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.83 per bushel, and the purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.51 per bushel, slightly down. As of September 26, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.5375 per bushel [17][19][21]. - On September 26, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, slightly decreased to 116.07 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports slightly decreased to 134.88 reais per bag [23][25]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has improved slightly, with a drought rate of 56% this week compared to 58% last week [28]. - In the next two weeks, the temperature in US soybean - producing areas will be relatively warm, with no threat of early frost, and precipitation will be relatively low, which is conducive to crop harvesting [30][32]. - In Brazil, most of the producing areas have slightly less precipitation, the southern region is relatively humid, the sowing in Paraná state is progressing quickly, but the progress in the central - western regions such as Mato Grosso is slow [35]. - Precipitation in Argentina's soybean - producing areas is normal to high, and the sowing work is expected to start in October [37]. - As of the week ending September 9, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, compared with 63% last week and 64% in the same period last year [39]. Demand Factors - As of September 19, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.22 per bushel, up from $3.14 last week [42]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 512,300 tons, down from 837,100 tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 484,100 tons, down from 804,300 tons last week [45][47]. - The net sales of US soybeans this year were 724,400 tons, down from 923,000 tons last week; the sales of US soybeans for the next year were 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week [49][51]. - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [53]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.068, indicating that it has entered the La Nina range [56]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [58][60]. - As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,200 lots, compared with 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, compared with 59,400 lots last week [64][66][68].