新能源及有色金属周报：临近假期，下游消费清淡，铅价维持震荡格局-20250928

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core View of the Report - Despite the approaching National Day holiday and weak procurement from downstream battery companies, the lead ore supply remains tight. Coupled with the overall positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle on non - ferrous metals, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for hedging with a buying range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market Analysis - Mine end: In the week of September 27, the domestic lead concentrate market continued to face a supply shortage. The import ore market was seller - dominated with light actual transactions. The processing fee (TC) of imported ore pb60 showed a downward trend. Smelters in Hunan, Inner Mongolia, and Henan reported downward pressure on lead concentrate processing fees. Due to insufficient imported ore arrivals and a tight supply of recycled lead raw materials, the demand gap for lead concentrates widened. Some smelters lowered the pb50TC quote to boost procurement [1] - Primary lead: In the week of September 27, the average operating rate of primary lead smelting enterprises was 66.49%, a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous week. Production in Henan fluctuated, with one enterprise resuming production and another still under maintenance. Small factories in Hunan reduced production slightly due to raw material quality issues, while production in Yunnan was stable. A factory in North China increased production after maintenance, and enterprises in East China have a planned maintenance in the fourth quarter but the specific time is undetermined [1] - Recycled lead: In the week of September 28, the operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces rebounded to 27.47%, a rise of 3.73 percentage points from the previous week. This was mainly due to the pre - holiday stocking demand from downstream battery companies, which pushed up the lead price. The stable price of waste batteries helped smelters repair their profits from losses to profits. The operating rate in Anhui increased significantly by 8.25 percentage points. It is expected that the resumption of production will accelerate after the holiday, and the operating rate may continue to rise [2] - Consumption: In the week of September 28, the comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.62%, a slight increase of 0.56 percentage points from the previous week. The demand for electric bicycle batteries improved due to stable supporting orders and pre - holiday restocking by dealers, which drove some enterprises to increase production. However, orders for automotive batteries were weak, and some enterprises planned to take a 5 - 8 - day holiday for the National Day, resulting in low production enthusiasm. With the approaching double festivals, enterprises generally arranged holidays, and the operating rate is expected to decline [2] - Inventory: As of the week of September 28, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 4.64 million tons, a decrease of 2.05 million tons from the previous week. The LME inventory decreased by 125 tons to 219,425 tons from the previous week [2] Strategy - It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for hedging with a buying range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3]