Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices dropped to a relatively low level last week, increasing downstream procurement enthusiasm and leading to a reduction in social inventory and a repair of spot discounts. The supply side remains stable, domestic consumption is steadily recovering, and the absolute value of social inventory is still relatively low. There is no need to be pessimistic about aluminum prices, and consumption at home and abroad in the fourth quarter is expected to be positive [9]. - The alumina market has no obvious positive factors, with supply remaining in excess and social inventory rapidly accumulating. Although the cost side is in a state of game, the downward space is limited under the background of low valuation [9]. - The downstream consumption of aluminum alloy is recovering, but the supply is still in excess, with high overall social inventory. The absolute price is affected by macro factors, which is not conducive to the seasonal convergence trend of the price difference with aluminum ingots [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price - As of September 26, 2025, LME aluminum closed at $2,649.0 per ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,745 yuan per ton. The spot premium in East China was 0 yuan per ton, in the Central Plains region was 50 yuan per ton, and in the Foshan region was -75 yuan per ton. The LME aluminum spot premium (0 - 3) was $5.4 per ton [1]. Supply - As of September 26, 2025, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, with no weekly change; the operating capacity was 44.439 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,000 tons; and the industry operating rate was 98.25% [1]. Demand - According to Steel Union data, the weekly output of aluminum rods was 361,600 tons, a weekly increase of 600 tons, and the weekly output of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils was 367,000 tons, a weekly increase of 2,700 tons. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals data, the operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises was 67.00%, a weekly increase of 1.80%; the operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises was 69.00%, a weekly increase of 0.80%; the operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises was 72.60%, a weekly increase of 0.70%; and the operating rate of aluminum profile enterprises was 54.60%, with no weekly change [1]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 617,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 21,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 123,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 12,000 tons. As of September 26, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 517,700 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 63,230 tons [1][2]. Profit - As of September 26, 2025, the weighted production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was about 16,268 yuan per ton, and the immediate production profit was 4,502 yuan per ton [3]. Alumina Price - As of September 26, 2025, the alumina futures contract closed at 2,901 yuan per ton. The spot prices in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Guangxi were 2,940 yuan per ton, 2,970 yuan per ton, 2,900 yuan per ton, 3,155 yuan per ton, and 3,150 yuan per ton respectively. The FOB price of imported alumina was $323 per ton [4]. Supply - As of September 26, 2025, according to Aladdin data, the national built - in capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, the operating capacity was 98.55 million tons, a weekly increase of 600,000 tons, and the operating rate was 82.93% [4]. Cost - As of September 26, 2025, the quoted price of Guinea bauxite on the website was $74.0 per dry ton, and the ocean freight was $26.0 per ton. The price index of domestic northern bauxite was 655 yuan per ton, and that of southern bauxite was 585 yuan per ton. The bauxite long - term contract price in the fourth quarter is expected to decline by $1 - 2 per ton, and there is still uncertainty in overseas bauxite [4]. Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the total national alumina inventory was 4.505 million tons, a weekly increase of 44,000 tons. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 3.171 million tons, a weekly increase of 17,000 tons; the inventory at stations and ports was 1.042 million tons, a weekly increase of 23,000 tons; the port inventory was 72,000 tons, a weekly increase of 14,000 tons; the finished product inventory in alumina plants was 220,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10,000 tons; and the warehouse receipt inventory was 149,211 tons [5]. Profit - As of September 26, 2025, calculated based on imported ore at $73.5 per ton, the full production cost of marginal high - cost enterprises was 3,182 yuan per ton, with a production loss of 242 yuan per ton; the full production cost using domestic ore was 2,979 yuan per ton, with a production loss of 39 yuan per ton. The import profit and loss of alumina was 108 yuan per ton [5]. Aluminum Alloy Price - As of September 26, 2025, the futures contract price closed at 20,325 yuan per ton. Jiangxi Baotai quoted 20,400 yuan per ton, and the purchase price of civil primary aluminum was 16,000 yuan per ton [6]. Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 72,000 tons, a weekly increase of 1,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 58,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 3,000 tons [7]. Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost of ADC12 was 20,323 yuan per ton, and the theoretical profit was 177 yuan per ton [8]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution; neutral on alumina [10]. - Arbitrage: Carry out calendar spread arbitrage for aluminum [10].
新能源及有色金属周报：节前备货叠加惜售，现货贴水快速修复-20250928
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-28 11:11