碳酸锂周度报告：多空矛盾不强，震荡运行为主-20250928

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weekly lithium carbonate fluctuated without an obvious trend. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene is still increasing but approaching its peak, and imports are expected to decrease in September, with overall supply remaining flat. Demand is strong in the peak season, with a 5% increase in September, leading to inventory depletion from September to October, which supports the current price. However, demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and with the expected resumption of downstream mines, the balance sheet will gradually turn into surplus, putting pressure on prices. Before the holiday, there is no new clear - direction driver, so lithium carbonate will mainly fluctuate in the short term. [14] - The strategy suggests wide - range fluctuations and light - position operations within the range for single - side trading, with no suggestions for spreads and options. Variables include changes in the macro - environment, increased supply, and demand falling short of expectations. [14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 01: Lithium Carbonate Overview - Supply: Total weekly production was 20,516 tons, a 0.75% increase. Spodumene production increased by 0.93% due to increased hedging profits, approaching a short - term peak; mica production decreased by 0.70% and remained stable after CATL's shutdown; salt - lake production increased by 0.66% with new capacity in the ramping - up stage; recycling production increased by 1.85%, and imports remained unchanged. Chile's reduced shipments in August will lead to a decrease in imports in September. [13] - Demand: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.15%, and that of ternary materials increased by 0.68%. The peak - season demand is strong, and downstream procurement is active. Pre - holiday stocking is basically completed. [13] - Inventory: The port inventory of lithium concentrate decreased by 4.45%, and the total inventory decreased by 0.51%. Smelter inventory decreased by 2.80%, and downstream inventory increased by 2.35%. Overall inventory decreased due to strong demand. [13] - Valuation: Ore prices increased slightly with the market, raising costs and compressing profit margins. There is no obvious hedging profit. The profit from spodumene decreased by 58.69%, and that from mica decreased by 32.39%. [13] - Balance Sheet: In 2025, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate showed certain trends. The new August import and export data showed that imports were slightly lower than expected, and Chile's August shipments decreased by 4.8% month - on - month, resulting in a 3,000 - ton reduction in September imports. [15] Part 02: Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain Prices - Lithium Carbonate Market - related: It includes data on lithium carbonate futures such as the basis, trading - to - holding ratio, trading volume, and open interest, as well as spot prices and cost - profit data. [17] - Lithium Ore Prices: It shows the prices of spodumene concentrate (6% - CIF China) and lithium mica over the years. [27][30] - Lithium Carbonate Prices: It presents the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, their price differences, and cost - profit data. [35][41] - Lithium Hydroxide Price Spreads: It includes the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide and their price differences with lithium carbonate. [63] - Cathode Material Prices: It shows the prices of ternary materials of different grades and lithium iron phosphate. [66] - Power Battery Cell Prices: It presents the prices of square lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, and 523 square ternary cells. [68][70][71] Part 03: Lithium Carbonate Upstream Supply Environment - Lithium Concentrate: It shows the import volume of lithium concentrate, especially from Australia, including monthly and cumulative data and their year - on - year and month - on - month changes. [75][76][80] - Lithium Carbonate: It includes capacity, monthly and weekly operating rates, production volume (total and by raw material), import and export volume, and total supply, along with their changes over time. [83][88][108] Part 04: Lithium Carbonate Downstream Consumption Environment - Apparent Demand: It shows the apparent consumption volume of lithium carbonate. [113] - Real Demand: It includes the production volume and monthly operating rates of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, manganese - acid lithium, and lithium hexafluorophosphate. [113] - Terminal Demand: It includes the production volume, shipment volume, inventory - to - sales ratio, and installation volume of lithium batteries, power batteries, and energy - storage and consumer batteries, as well as the production and sales of new - energy vehicles, their penetration rate, and energy - storage bid - winning scale and capacity. [113] Part 05: Lithium Carbonate Inventory Structure - Weekly Inventory: It includes warehouse receipts by region, smelter inventory, downstream cathode material factory inventory, other inventory, and total inventory. [212] - Monthly Inventory: It includes smelter inventory, downstream cathode material factory inventory, and total inventory. [212] - Upstream and Downstream Inventory: It includes lithium ore inventory, lithium iron phosphate finished - product inventory, and ternary material finished - product inventory. [212]