红枣市场表现与基本面周度报告：中泰期货红枣市场表现与基本面周度报告-20250928

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include partial production cuts in some surveyed areas and possible impacts of rainy weather on jujube quality in some areas. Negative factors are high inventory, abundant market supply, the off - season for consumption in September, and the likelihood of a normal but relatively small - yield year according to the survey results [4] - This week, the temperature in the main production areas of Xinjiang grey jujubes is between 10°C - 28°C, and the jujube trees are in the sugar - increasing period. There is no extreme weather in the weather forecast, but attention should be paid to rainfall during the sugar - increasing period and changes in jujube fruit quality. In the sales areas, the daily arrival of goods is about 3 trucks, the price of high - quality goods is strong, and the market trading atmosphere is average. The average price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei this week is 10.39 yuan/kg, and the average price of first - grade jujubes is 9.50 yuan/kg, with the mainstream price unchanged from last week [4] - The trading strategy suggests short - term waiting and seeing for single - side trading, and no recommendations for monthly spread, volatility, and options trading [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price (Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in the main production areas of Xinjiang is 5.33 yuan/kg. The mainstream transaction price in Aksu is 4.8 yuan/kg, in Alar is 5.2 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar is 6.0 yuan/kg [6] Spot Price (Main Sales Areas) - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, about 10 trucks of goods arrived at the parking area this week. The supply of goods in the market is small, the market trading atmosphere is average, the spot price fluctuates slightly, and downstream buyers purchase as needed. The market grade prices are as follows: super - special grade is 11.50 - 12.50 yuan/kg, special - grade is 9.70 - 11.70 yuan/kg, first - grade is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg, second - grade is 7.80 - 8.60 yuan/kg, and third - grade is 6.30 - 7.00 yuan/kg [10] Spot Price (Hebei Cangzhou) - The spot grade price difference in the Hebei Cangzhou market is stable compared to the previous week. The price difference between special - grade and first - grade jujubes is 1.02 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg compared to last week. The price difference between first - grade and second - grade jujubes is 1.2 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [13] Sample Point Weekly Inventory - According to the survey data of Mysteel Agricultural Products, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9,203 tons, a decrease of 44 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 84.80%. The inventory of sample points has decreased [16] Sales Profit (Xinjiang Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in the main production areas of Xinjiang is 5.33 yuan/kg, and the price of first - grade finished products in the Hebei sales market is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg. The freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 600 - 630 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is equivalent to 2.36 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [19] Futures - Spot Basis (Special - Grade, First - Grade) - The futures price of jujubes has risen significantly, the spot price is stable, and the futures - spot basis has weakened slightly. The first - grade spot in Cangzhou has a discount of 585 yuan/ton compared to the standard delivery product [22] Contract Spread - No specific summary information provided other than the data charts Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of September 26, the number of registered warehouse receipts for jujubes is 6,743, and the number of valid forecasts is 58, totaling 6,801 [29]