锌月报：国内累库放缓，锌价震荡下行-20250928

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The zinc market is currently facing a situation where domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down, and zinc prices are oscillating downward. After the macro - impact fades, zinc prices may have further room to fall [1][7]. Summary according to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Market Review - Futures Prices: The Shanghai zinc futures price first oscillated strongly and then gradually weakened, with a significant decline on Friday night. The market was influenced by the Fed's actions and macro - data, and the zinc's weak fundamentals could not support high prices. The Shanghai - London ratio approached 7.5. The outlook is for prices to oscillate and decline [6][7]. - Spot Prices: In Tianjin, zinc prices fell to an acceptable level for downstream buyers, who increased point - price pick - ups for pre - National Day stocking. Inventory decreased, and some smelters were reluctant to sell, leading to a slight increase in the trader's delivery premium. In Shanghai, downstream buyers actively purchased at low prices for stocking, but as some completed stocking and the market rebounded, spot trading weakened [8]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The latest LME zinc inventory was 42,775 tons on September 26 and continued to decline this week. The overseas zinc ingot out - storage was due to a bank's inventory from the previous year [10]. - Export Profit and Loss: SMM's new export profit - loss calculations showed a loss of 611 yuan/ton for Southeast Asian warehousing and a profit of 29.5 yuan/ton for Southeast Asian spot (turning from loss to profit) on September 25. There may be a chance of profit in warehousing next week, and zinc products may be exported [14]. 2. Raw Material End - Processing Fees: As of September 26, the SMM Zn50 weekly TC average price decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton to 3,650 yuan/metal ton. Domestic zinc mine production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, and smelters' winter - stocking demand and miners' profit considerations may lead to a downward adjustment of zinc ore processing fees in October [17][18]. - Zinc Concentrate Supply: In August 2025, 467,300 tons (physical tons) of zinc concentrate were imported, a 6.8% decrease from July and a 30.06% increase year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 3.5027 million tons (physical tons), a 43.06% increase year - on - year [21]. - Zinc Concentrate Inventory: The total inventory of SMM zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 339,300 tons, a decrease of 84,200 tons from last week, with a significant decline at Fangchenggang Port [26]. 3. Smelting End - Refined Zinc Import: In August 2025, China imported 25,656.83 tons of refined zinc, a 43.30% increase from July and a 3.59% decrease year - on - year. Kazakhstan was the largest source of imports, with 20,824.76 tons imported, a 69.97% increase from July and a 67.01% increase year - on - year. Iran was the second - largest source, with a 9.40% year - on - year increase [30]. - Smelting Start - up Rate: The start - up rate remained high, and the improvement in the processing economy of domestic ore led to an increase in the overall start - up rate [31][34]. 4. Demand End - Refined Zinc Export: No specific data on refined zinc export was provided other than the relevant charts [38][39]. - Downstream Production and Start - up Rate: Terminal orders remained weak, and typhoons affected the Guangdong market. The zinc alloy industry was affected by weak demand and low - price alloy competition. In the zinc oxide market, feed - grade zinc oxide was in the peak season, but rubber - grade and ceramic - grade zinc oxide had general demand [40][44]. - Downstream Prices and Basic Situation: The overall sales of galvanized pipes were weak, and inventory increased. Galvanized structural parts showed marginal improvement in consumption compared to August. The overall start - up rate of downstream industries was expected to decline slightly next week [44][45]. 5. Zinc Inventory - Downstream Inventory: No specific analysis of downstream inventory other than the relevant charts [49]. - Domestic Social Inventory: As of September 18, the total inventory of SMM's seven - location zinc ingots was 158,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from September 15. The Shanghai bonded - area inventory was 8,000 tons on September 25, unchanged from the previous period [52].