节前补库进入尾声，黑色整体减仓调整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - From a policy perspective, after the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the "anti - involution" policy cooled down, and it is currently in the policy - making stage. Pay attention to the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October. It is expected that the policy will have a neutral impact on the market outlook, and the black market will return to supply - demand and reality [2]. - In terms of market rhythm, the basis positive arbitrage has entered the closing cycle. Although the peak season is approaching, the real downstream demand for steel has limited improvement. The manufacturing prosperity level is still below the boom - bust line. High inventories of some varieties and the profit - taking of basis positive arbitrage suppress the spot price. It is expected that the market may experience a situation of "no peak season during the peak season" [3]. - Regarding supply - demand, on the demand side, the high - frequency sales data of new real - estate homes have weakened month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth of new housing starts is still negative. Although there are many infrastructure projects under construction, there is still pressure on funds, and the overall project progress is slow. The concrete delivery volume still shows a year - on - year decrease, and the overall building materials demand is still weak. For coil demand, downstream consumption in industries such as machinery, automobiles, containers, and home appliances is acceptable, and steel mills generally have no pressure in coil orders, with a delivery period of more than 30 days. However, high inventories of galvanized and cold - rolled products affect steel valuations. In terms of exports, the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement that will take effect on October 1, which is expected to have a significant impact on buy - order exports [3]. - In terms of valuation, steel mill profits are acceptable but at a low level, with the production profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils at about 100 - 200 yuan/ton. After the downstream restocking for the National Day is basically over, the long - process cost is stable, and the futures prices of raw materials such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke are adjusted. The market valuation is expected to remain between off - peak and on - peak electricity prices [3]. - For alloys, the supply - side contradiction of ferromanganese silicon is large, and the over - supply pressure is gradually emerging. The medium - to - long - term trend of selling high remains unchanged. The cost line of ferrosilicon is generally judged to be neutral to weak, and the medium - term strategy of selling high for ferrosilicon also remains unchanged. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt pressure of the November contract [4]. - In terms of trends, the black market is expected to adjust in the short term and maintain a volatile trend in the medium term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - From July 2024 to September 2025, multiple policies related to the industrial economy were introduced, including policies for coal production verification, ten key industries' stable growth, and enterprise income tax prepayment declaration optimization [11][16]. 3.2 Market Participant and Pricing Logic Changes - In recent years, the black - market participants and pricing logic have changed significantly. In the spot market, futures and spot are deeply integrated, and basis pricing has a large market scale, with the futures market guiding or even dominating spot pricing. In the futures market, the capital capacity has increased significantly (exceeding 700 billion yuan in 2025), and the involvement of financial capital has increased price volatility. The trading and pricing logic has become "buying expectations and selling reality" [19]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Real Estate - The real - estate investment continues to decline, with the year - on - year decrease in the real - estate development investment completion amount in 2025. The sales of new and second - hand houses have also decreased slightly year - on - year. The new housing starts have a large year - on - year decline, and the construction and completion areas also show negative growth to varying degrees [48][60][67]. 3.3.2 Infrastructure - In July 2025, 905 infrastructure projects were started across the country, with a total investment of about 179.1569 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of investment were Tibet, Anhui, and Fujian. The growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, and the issuance of local government special bonds has shown certain fluctuations [75]. 3.3.3 Manufacturing - The investment intensity in the manufacturing industry has weakened slightly, and the entire downstream industry still faces inventory - reduction pressure. The PMI data has improved. In August 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin manufacturing PMI in August was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from July [99][103]. 3.3.4 Machinery - The construction machinery industry ended a three - year decline in 2024 and achieved a bottom - out recovery. In 2025, the domestic replacement cycle is expected to start gradually. In July 2025, the sales of various excavators were 17,138 units, a year - on - year increase of 25.2%. The sales of other construction machinery such as graders, rollers, and pavers also showed different trends [109][111]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendations - Trend Strategy: Steel is expected to maintain a volatile trend; short iron ore at high prices and hold; the coking coal and coke futures prices may fluctuate and rise in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on dips; sell high for ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon in the medium term (without chasing short positions) [5]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Participate in the positive arbitrage of iron ore 1 - 5 contracts at low prices; maintain a high spread between coils and rebar; pay attention to the long - term recovery of the steel - ore price ratio under production restrictions; hedge the risk of short positions in far - month ferromanganese silicon with long positions in near - month ferrosilicon [5]. - Spot - Futures Strategy: Pay attention to the closing of basis positive arbitrage and the establishment of reverse arbitrage positions for steel during the peak season [5]. - Options Strategy: Close the profitable wide - spread options on near - month steel contracts and continue to establish short positions in far - month wide - spread options [5].