地缘冲突再升温，成本带动LPG走强

Report Scope and Title - The report is a weekly LPG report titled "Geopolitical Conflicts Heat Up Again, Cost drives LPG Higher", dated September 28, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Report Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions have flared up again, and in the short term, cost will drive LPG to strengthen to a certain extent [6] - OPEC+ is further increasing crude oil production. Although geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, the US and Iran, and the US and Russia may offset the increase to some extent, it does not change the fact that LPG supply remains abundant [6] - On the demand side, the peak season for the blending market is coming to an end, and it will be difficult to maintain high operating rates, so chemical demand may weaken [6] - PDH profits have significantly recovered, and subsequent operating rates may be supported [6] - Overall, LPG supply is very abundant. CP prices may be affected by peak - season stockpiling and strengthen periodically in the short term, but will follow oil prices in the long term. With high supply and the expectation that demand is unlikely to strengthen beyond expectations, the upside for LPG is limited, and a bearish view is maintained in the long term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs PART 01: LPG Market Review - Propane CP expected average price is $544/ton, down $4/ton from the previous period, a 0.73% month - on - month decrease; butane CP expected average price is $524/ton, down $4/ton from the previous period, a 0.76% month - on - month decrease [5] - Propane CFR South China average price is $587/ton, down $7/ton from the previous period, a 1.18% month - on - month decrease; butane CFR South China average price is $567/ton, down $7/ton from the previous period, a 1.22% month - on - month decrease [5] - Domestic LPG supply has increased slightly. This period's LPG commercial volume is 539,200 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous period, a 0.13% increase [5] - Domestic LPG market demand is expected to increase. With the National Day holiday approaching, downstream still has restocking needs before the holiday, and the holiday will boost combustion consumption. In the chemical field, there are plans to start up plants for olefin and alkane deep - processing, including one alkylation unit and three PDH units, and the demand for ether - after C4 and propane is expected to increase [5] PART 02: LPG Fundamentals LPG Supply - Domestic - Data on the operating rates of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, comprehensive refining profits of major refineries, and LPG commercial volume in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [11][12] LPG Supply - Import - Data on LPG arrivals in China, import trade margins in the South China region, total monthly LPG imports in China, and LPG imports from different countries from 2021 - 2025 are presented [14][15][16] LPG Inventory - Data on LPG port inventory, refinery capacity utilization ratio, port capacity utilization ratio, factory - level inventory, and sales - to - production ratios in different regions in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [22][23][25] LPG Downstream Industry - Data on PDH unit operating rates, PDH production margins, MTBE isomerization etherification production margins, MTBE export factory capacity utilization rates, alkylation oil capacity utilization rates, and alkylation oil production margins in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [27][29][31] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data Import Cost: CP Forward and Current - Month Prices - Data on propane and butane CP contract prices, CP crude oil price trends, and propane spot prices in South China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [35][36] Spot: Domestic Refinery Civil Gas Prices and Import Premiums - Data on the ex - factory prices of civil LPG at Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao from 2021 - 2025 are presented [38][39][40] PART 04: LPG Other Data - Data on LPG main contract basis, the price difference between the first - and second - month contracts, and registered warehouse receipts at major delivery warehouses from 2021 - 2025 are presented [43][45] Key Strategy Recommendation - Futures strategy: Try shorting at high prices [7]