中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For PVC, this week's production slightly increased and was slightly higher than expected, with an expected increase next week as previously shut - down units resume. Export orders increased slightly this week, but domestic demand is weak. The overall chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has started to weaken, mainly due to the weakening of caustic soda and the strengthening of calcium carbide prices. Strategies include paying attention to spot - futures arbitrage opportunities, a bearish configuration after a rebound for single - side trading, and temporarily observing the 1 - 5 spread [6][9][10]. - For caustic soda, this week's production maintained a high level with a slight increase, and it is expected to continue rising next week. The overall inventory slightly increased this week, and there may be a slight de - stocking next week if production fails to meet expectations. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to guard against callback risks. The 1 - 5 spread is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities [103][106][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC 3.1.1 Spot Market - PVC prices showed an oscillating trend this week. The prices of related products such as caustic soda 32% decreased, while the prices of some calcium carbide and liquid chlorine increased. For example, the price of caustic soda 32% dropped from 770 yuan/ton last week to 760 yuan/ton this week, and the price of Shandong liquid chlorine increased from - 200 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton [7]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The basis oscillated. For example, the basis of East China calcium carbide method increased from - 170 yuan/ton last week to - 157 yuan/ton this week. The 1 - 5 spread oscillated, and the 9 - 1 spread increased from 421 to 433 [9]. 3.1.3 Industry Chain Profit - The overall chlor - alkali comprehensive profit started to weaken. The production profit of calcium carbide in Shaanxi decreased from - 358 yuan/ton to - 398 yuan/ton. The export profit slightly improved, with the theoretical export profit to India increasing from 740 yuan/ton to 782 yuan/ton [9]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - Production: This week's total production was 47.96 million tons, an increase of 1.87 million tons from last week. The production of ethylene - based method was 14.06 million tons, and that of calcium carbide - based method was 33.90 million tons. Next week, production is expected to continue increasing [6]. - Demand: This week's apparent demand was 42.50 million tons, slightly lower than the expected value. The expected apparent demand for next week is 42.53 million tons. The domestic apparent demand growth rate in September may be lower than the expected 2% [6]. - Inventory: This week, the old - sample inventory increased by 1.21 million tons, and the new - sample inventory of middle - stream traders increased by 1.75 million tons. If calculated based on the current production and apparent demand, inventory is expected to increase next week [6]. 3.2 Caustic Soda 3.2.1 Spot Market - The price of caustic soda 32% decreased from 770 yuan/ton last week to 760 yuan/ton this week. The price of Shandong liquid chlorine increased from - 200 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong raw salt remained stable at 210 yuan/ton [7][104]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - The basis strengthened. For example, the 32% caustic soda basis of the 01 contract increased from - 235 yuan/ton last week to - 153 yuan/ton this week. The 1 - 5 spread decreased from - 82 to - 95, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [106]. 3.2.3 Industry Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased from - 143 yuan/ton to - 260 yuan/ton. The profit of external sales of caustic soda and liquid chlorine improved, and the profit of supporting PVC enterprises showed a weakening trend [106]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - Production: This week's total production was 81.29 million tons, a slight increase from last week. It is expected to continue increasing next week [103]. - Demand: This week's apparent demand was about 74.24 million tons, and it is estimated to be about 77.53 million tons next week based on historical data [103]. - Inventory: The national inventory slightly increased this week. If production fails to meet expectations next week, there may be a slight de - stocking [103].