内外棉价共振走低，节前离场观望为宜

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The international cotton market is affected by tariff games, demand concerns, and new cotton harvest pressure, leading to a weakening trend in cotton prices. The poor export data from USDA also contributes to the weak performance [8]. - The domestic cotton market has low downstream textile enterprise operating rates, slow yarn inventory digestion, and weak demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. New flower listings restrict price drops, but strong basis limits further decline [8]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short - side approach on rallies, but stay on the sidelines before the National Day. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. Summary by Directory Market Overview Price Situation - Futures and spot cotton prices, as well as related price indices, are under downward pressure. The NYBOT 2 -号 cotton futures closed at 66.27 (down 0.05% week - on - week), the international cotton index M declined by 0.89% to 73.83, and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract price dropped 2.30% to 13,405 [5]. - Cotton import profits at the spot and futures levels are shrinking, while the loss in yarn imports is narrowing. The cotton basis strengthened this week [5]. Supply - Demand Factors - Globally, according to the USDA September report, cotton production is expected to increase by 0.91% to 25.6542 million tons, and inventory is expected to decrease by 1.04% to 15.9445 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio dropped to 61.55% [7]. - In the domestic market, production is expected to increase slightly by 3.17% to 7.085 million tons. Commercial inventory decreased by 32.34% to 1.4817 million tons, and imports increased by 40% to 70,000 tons. Textile exports decreased by 0.85% [7]. Spot Market Price and Spread - Spot cotton and yarn prices are in a high - level volatile and slow - decline state, with imported cotton prices at a low level. Cotton import profits remain relatively large [13][22]. - The basis of cotton and yarn showed a rebound this week [19]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - The USDA September report shows an increase in global cotton production and a decrease in inventory. US upland cotton exports decreased week - on - week [26][29]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase according to the September reports of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and USDA. Commercial inventory is in a destocking state, and port inventory continues to decline [33][37]. - Cotton imports rebounded month - on - month, but overall imports weakened. Textile enterprise operating rates are stable, yarn inventory is slowly decreasing, and cotton raw material inventory is declining. Cotton yarn imports did not increase significantly, and textile exports are not bad [40][42][45]. Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index rebounded, and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate slowed down [50].