南华期货乙二醇产业周报：订单边际好转，但上方维持承压-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol has marginally improved, and the inventory accumulation expectation has narrowed with unexpected maintenance. However, the peak - season under - performance expectation is hard to reverse, and the upside of polyester is limited. The short - term drive is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4150 - 4350. In the long - term, the inventory accumulation expectation will keep the valuation under pressure [1]. - In the near term, the port's visible inventory has decreased to a historical low, the supply elasticity is limited, and the cost and sentiment have stabilized, so there is limited downward momentum. In the long term, the supply will gradually enter the inventory accumulation channel, and the inventory accumulation expectation from November is over 150,000 tons per month on average [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Near - term trading logic: The port's visible inventory is at a historical low, the supply elasticity is limited, and the cost and sentiment have stabilized [2]. - Long - term trading expectation: The supply will enter the inventory accumulation channel, and the inventory accumulation expectation will put long - term pressure on the valuation. The macro sentiment may provide new support for the price [6]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Wide - range oscillation [8]. - Price range: The EG2601 oscillates in the range of 4150 - 4350 [9]. - Strategy suggestions: EG2601 accumulative option purchase, sell EG01 put option eg2601 - P - 4150 at low prices. For basis strategy, consider positive spreads when the 10 - day paper cargo +70 is below [9]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - Provide polyester price range forecasts and corresponding volatility information. Also, give hedging strategy suggestions for different scenarios such as inventory management and procurement management [10]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Present key data of MEG and polyester, including price, spread, profit, inventory, and operating rate, and show their week - on - week changes [11][12]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerned Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments issued the "Stable Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", but its actual impact on the EG supply side is expected to be limited [13]. - Negative information: India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry announced anti - dumping duties on ethylene glycol imports from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Polyester load and the pre - National Day downstream replenishment rhythm. Also, the implementation of the restart plans of Xinjiang Tianye, Satellite Chemical, and Xinjiang Tianying [15][16]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - Price - volume and capital interpretation: The ethylene glycol market shows a weak oscillation in the range of 4150 - 4300, with shrinking trading volume. The main funds are still bearish. The near - term 10 contracts maintain a premium structure over 01, and the basis has weakened slightly [17][20][26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Provide valuation and profit data of MEG, including cost, upstream and downstream profits, and show their week - on - week changes [30]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Provide the supply - demand balance sheet data of MEG from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, demand, inventory, etc., and mark the expected production changes of some enterprises [57]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The ethylene glycol operating load has slightly decreased this week. The domestic production will remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. Some devices have stopped or are planning to restart, and production plan adjustments may occur due to economic factors [58]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The polyester load has decreased to 90.3% this week. The polyester demand has a limited upward height in the seasonal peak, but the weaving orders have improved. The inventory of filament and staple fiber has decreased significantly, and the bottle - chip processing fee has improved [77]. 3.6 Industrial Chain - Related Chart Appendix - Provide various charts related to the ethylene glycol, polyester, and terminal industries, including price, spread, profit, operating rate, inventory, etc., to show their historical trends and seasonal characteristics [108][157][184].