海外周报20250928：国庆假期海外市场前瞻-20250928

Economic Overview - Strong U.S. economic data has cooled interest rate cut expectations, with the Fed's hawkish comments and Powell's assessment of high stock valuations leading to a volatile week for U.S. markets[1] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q2 2025 was significantly revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, driven by increased consumer and investment contributions[1] - The PCE inflation index for August matched expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, consistent with the previous value[1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 0.3% and 0.7% respectively, while gold prices rose by 2% to $3,760 per ounce during the week[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 4.8 basis points to 4.176%, and the 2-year yield rose by 7 basis points to 3.64%[1] - The U.S. dollar index saw a slight increase of 0.5% to 98.15, reflecting a rebound in the dollar[1] Analyst Expectations - Analysts have raised U.S. growth expectations for Q3 2025 to Q2 2026, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicting a growth rate of 3.4% for Q3 2025[1] - The consensus among analysts indicates a 34% probability of a U.S. recession within the next year, a slight increase from the previous 32%[1] - Expectations for Fed rate cuts have been adjusted, with analysts predicting two cuts in 2025 and one in 2026, aligning with the Fed's dot plot guidance[1] Upcoming Data - Key U.S. employment data, including non-farm payrolls and PMI, will be released during the National Day holiday, which are critical for the October FOMC meeting[2] - Analysts expect September non-farm payrolls to show a modest increase of 50,000 jobs, indicating a balanced labor market despite ongoing concerns[2] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes from Trump, excessive Fed rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]