Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-28 12:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the metals and new materials industry, highlighting strong performance in various segments [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that supply disruptions continue to drive metal prices higher, with significant increases observed in copper and precious metals [3][10]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals index has outperformed the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 56.38%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 40.74 percentage points [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued price increases in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, due to central bank purchasing trends and macroeconomic factors [3][19]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.06%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 1.07% [4]. - The non-ferrous metals index saw a weekly increase of 3.52%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.46 percentage points [6][8]. - Precious metals experienced a notable rise, with gold prices increasing by 1.89% and silver by 6.92% [3][15]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals showed varied price movements, with copper prices up by 8.57% and aluminum down by 1.79% [3][10]. - Year-to-date performance for various metals includes copper up 72.50%, precious metals up 67.52%, and energy metals up 56.65% [10][15]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Copper supply is expected to face disruptions due to incidents affecting major mines, with a projected 35% reduction in output from Freeport's Grasberg mine in 2026 [3][31]. - The report notes a decrease in domestic copper inventories, with social inventory at 140,000 tons, down by 9,000 tons [3][31]. - The aluminum sector is seeing increased downstream processing activity, with operating rates rising to 63% [3][31]. Key Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, recommending firms such as Huafeng Aluminum and Yatai Technology [3][10]. - For precious metals, companies like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the ongoing market trends [3][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and price-to-book (PB) ratios for various firms [17][18].