南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报：供应政策预期，盘面反复-20250928

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash include supply contraction expectations and the current weak balance state of glass and high - production and high - inventory situation of soda ash. The trading logic lies in expectations that are difficult to be falsified in the short term [1]. - In the short term, glass is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and soda ash follows. The情绪 for glass has not fully released [6]. - The demand for glass is currently weak with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches, and the demand for soda ash remains stable [54][66]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply contraction expectations: There may be industrial policies. For glass, there are disturbances such as coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe, and there is an expectation of petroleum coke - to - gas conversion next year, which implies cost increase. Soda ash has no clear indication and its price fluctuates with glass or market sentiment [1]. - In reality, glass is in a weak balance with high middle - stream inventories, and without real production cuts, the upward price elasticity is limited. Soda ash has high production and high inventories, with strong upward pressure, but the price is supported by expectations [1]. - Near - term trading logic: Glass has general real - world demand but some speculative demand, and the middle - stream still has "water - storage capacity". Soda ash follows coal prices and glass, but is suppressed by high near - term inventories and production, while upstream soda ash plants currently have limited pressure due to downstream replenishment at low prices [2]. - Long - term trading expectations: There are expectations of cost increase, mainly from coal prices, and whether the supply contraction expectations will be fulfilled, mainly related to industrial policies. When the expectations cannot be falsified, the futures market may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [3]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: In the short term, glass is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and soda ash follows [6]. - Month - spread strategy: Without substantial cold - repair or production cuts in glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [6]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Consider going long on glass and short on soda ash [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The price range of glass is predicted to be 1000 - 1400, and that of soda ash is 1100 - 1500 [6]. - Hedging strategies: Different hedging strategies are recommended for glass and soda ash in terms of inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading and option trading [6]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Glass spot prices: The average price of glass in Shahe decreased slightly, and prices in different regions showed different trends [8]. - Glass futures prices and month - spreads: The prices of glass futures contracts decreased, and the month - spreads changed [9]. - Soda ash spot prices: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable [11]. - Soda ash futures prices and month - spreads: The prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased, and the month - spreads changed [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: There were rumors of a glass industry symposium, and relevant departments issued a work plan for the building materials industry. The upstream inventories of glass and soda ash decreased, with glass inventory (factory warehouse) down 2.55% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year, and soda ash factory inventory down 10.41 tons week - on - week [13]. - Bearish information: The inventory of Shahe's spot - futures reached a new high this year, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased, with the total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses at an absolute high [14]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies [16]. - The downstream transmission situation after the spot price increase [16]. - Track daily production and sales [16]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation - Unilateral trends and capital movements: The main contracts of glass and soda ash maintained a position of over one million hands, in line with the seasonality. The price difference between the two narrowed, and neither showed a good trend. Glass once rose due to supply contraction expectations and spot price increases, but then declined as the sentiment subsided [16]. - Basis and month - spread structure: Glass generally maintains a C - structure, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread idea is maintained in logic. Soda ash also maintains a C - structure, with limited short - term month - spread opportunities [31][33]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Glass: The theoretical cost changes little. Natural gas production lines are in loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines still have profits. Glass factories have limited willingness to cold - repair at current prices [38]. - Soda ash: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1170 yuan/ton, and the full cost is 1300 - 1320 yuan/ton. The full cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is 1200 yuan/ton. There are still profits in the soda ash industrial chain at current prices [38]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 5 - 7 tons, accounting for 1.2% - 1.3% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [45]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 16 tons, accounting for 5.6% of the apparent demand, and the export in August was slightly higher than expected, maintaining high expectations [45]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass supply: The daily melting of glass has slightly increased, and there may be ignition plans for some production lines in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and industrial policies on glass production capacity [49]. - Soda ash supply: The production of soda ash fluctuates slightly with planned maintenance, and high supply is maintained [52]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass demand: This week, the spot price increase improved the shipment, but the overall demand is weak with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches [54]. - Soda ash demand: The daily melting of float and photovoltaic glass is stable, and the rigid demand for soda ash remains stable. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved significantly [66]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: The factory inventory of glass decreased, but the middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei are at a high level [75]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory of soda ash decreased, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse increased. The total inventory decreased, and the pressure on soda ash plants continued to ease [76].