南华期货PX-TA产业周报：“反内卷”情绪复苏，估值低位反弹-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX - TA prices rebounded from low levels driven by the resurgence of the "chemical anti - involution" sentiment and marginal improvement in demand. However, the peak of the polyester peak season is hard to anticipate, mainly showing seasonal and phased strength. The operating rates of filament and staple fiber in polyester have reached high levels, and the room for further increase is limited. The peak of polyester load still depends on the performance of bottle - chip operating rate [1]. - In the short term, the demand for polyester will remain at a high level. The inventory of polyester yarn has been significantly reduced due to the improvement of weaving orders and the superposition of terminal speculative sentiment and pre - holiday rigid - demand stocking. Recently, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost and sentiment have stabilized in the short term, with insufficient power for further decline [2]. - In the long term, PX is in a state of supply surplus relative to polyester in the fourth quarter, and its fundamentals are weakening marginally. However, PXN has been compressed to a low level, and its valuation is expected to fluctuate following the cost side and macro - sentiment. The macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the commodity market trend, and attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session in October and the 15th Five - Year Plan Outline, which may provide new drivers for PTA prices [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - PX - TA prices rebounded from low levels, but the polyester peak season is lackluster. The operating rates of filament and staple fiber are high, and the polyester load depends on bottle - chip production. The subsequent terminal demand and sentiment are expected to improve marginally in October, and the impact of macro - expectations may be greater than the suppression of fundamental pessimistic expectations [1]. - PX is expected to accumulate inventory in October, and PTA has many maintenance plans in the fourth quarter. If implemented, PX will generally maintain a state of flat to slightly accumulated inventory, and the supply - demand tight pattern has eased compared with previous expectations. PTA processing fees have expanded recently, but the over - supply pattern suppresses the repair strength, and additional maintenance is needed to relieve the structural contradiction [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Oscillating upward. The TA2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 4550 - 4800. - Strategy recommendation: Buy TA01 contracts on dips, with the recommended entry range of (4550, 4600). Expand the TA01 processing fees when they are below 280 [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Polyester price range forecast: The price ranges of ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, and bottle - chip are 4150 - 4450, 6400 - 7100, 4400 - 5000, and 5600 - 6200 respectively [9]. - PTA hedging strategy: Enterprises can short PTA futures to lock in profits according to their inventory, and buy PTA futures to lock in procurement costs [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", but the impact on the supply side is expected to be limited. Ineos reduced the load of one line and stopped another due to the typhoon [14]. - Negative information: A 1.1 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip plant in South China stopped production temporarily due to seawater backflow caused by the typhoon [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Polyester load adjustment and downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day. The subsequent recovery of Ineos' two lines with a total capacity of 2.35 million tons [23]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The PTA disk is oscillating in the range of 4500 - 4700, with overall shrinking trading volume. The futures price has oscillated downward recently, and the basis shows a slight discount [18]. - Capital trend: The net short positions of key seats in PTA and p - xylene first increased and then decreased, indicating that the main funds are cautiously bearish on the PX - TA market outlook. The PX - TA market currently lacks upward drivers and should be treated with a cost - following oscillation mindset [20]. - Monthly spread structure: PTA shows a slight C - structure, indicating that the monthly spread contradiction is not obvious. This week, the PTA monthly spread oscillated, and there was no significant change in the monthly spread [22]. - Basis structure: This week, some PTA plants reduced or stopped production due to the typhoon, and the downstream polyester sales improved significantly. The PTA spot basis strengthened slightly, but the overall market expectation is poor, and the subsequent spot contradiction is not obvious. The upward space of the basis is expected to be limited [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Cost Tracking The report shows the seasonal trends of Brent crude oil, Japanese CFR naphtha, and South Korean FOB xylene prices [46]. 3.4.2 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - International gasoline and diesel crack spreads: The report shows the seasonal trends of international gasoline and diesel crack spreads in Singapore, the United States, and Rotterdam [50]. - Domestic gasoline and diesel crack spreads: The report shows the seasonal trends of domestic gasoline and diesel crack spreads in Shandong [52]. - Naphtha reforming: The report shows the seasonal trends of naphtha reforming and cracking profits in Asia [55]. - Aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil: The report shows the seasonal trends of toluene and xylene blending for oil and disproportionation spreads in Asia [57]. - PX - TA link: The report shows the seasonal trends of Asian PXN, BZN, and PTA domestic processing fees [64]. 3.4.3 Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain The report shows the seasonal trends of polyester comprehensive profit, POY, FDY, DTY, staple fiber, and bottle - chip processing profits, as well as the bottle - chip internal - external price difference [66]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including PX and PTA production, import, supply, consumption, inventory, and other data [73]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - PX supply: Tianjin Petrochemical restarted this week, and the load increased to 86.7% (+0.4%). PX supply is expected to increase in October. In terms of supply - demand balance, PX is expected to accumulate about 100,000 tons of inventory in October. If the PTA maintenance plans in the fourth quarter are implemented, PX will generally maintain a state of flat to slightly accumulated inventory [74]. - PTA supply: Fuhai Chuang restarted 50% of its 4.5 - million - ton capacity recently. Ineos reduced the load of one line and stopped another due to the typhoon, and the TA load remained stable at 76.8%. The downstream demand has improved marginally, and the social inventory has increased slightly to 2.14 million tons. The PTA cash - flow processing fee has rebounded from a low level, but further expansion requires additional maintenance or price support [75]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Polyester demand: This week, the polyester load decreased to 90.3% (-1.1%) due to the shutdown of a bottle - chip plant in Zhuhai. The seasonal increase in polyester demand is limited, but weaving orders have improved recently, and the terminal sentiment has improved temporarily. The inventory of filament and staple fiber has been significantly reduced, and the polyester load is expected to remain high. The processing fees of the polyester segment are under pressure this week, but except for FDY, the pressure is not significant [84]. - Long - filament demand: The inventory of long - filament has been significantly reduced, and the subsequent load maintenance pressure is not large. The processing fees are under pressure but can be adjusted dynamically [84]. - Staple - fiber demand: The inventory of staple - fiber has decreased, and the processing fees are under pressure but can be adjusted [84]. - Bottle - chip demand: The processing fees of bottle - chip have improved recently, and the inventory is healthy. Attention should be paid to whether there will be plans to increase the load [84].