Shanghai Aijian Securities·2025-09-28 13:06Investment Rating - The report rates the carbon-ceramic brake disc industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The carbon-ceramic brake disc market is expected to reach a scale of approximately 7.3 to 11.5 billion yuan by 2026, driven by the demand for lightweight, intelligent, and high-end automotive solutions [2][6] - The industry is currently dominated by overseas companies like Brembo, but domestic manufacturers are rapidly breaking through technical barriers and entering the market [2][28] - The demand for carbon-ceramic brake discs is driven by three main factors: vehicle lightweighting, instant braking response, and the downscaling of high-end configurations to the 300,000 yuan market [2][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The lightweighting transformation in new energy vehicles presents new opportunities for carbon-ceramic composite materials, with China's automotive sales leading globally [6] - The market for new energy passenger vehicles is projected to exceed 15.38 million units in 2025, with a growth rate of 26% [6] 2. Market Size and Growth - The estimated market size for carbon-ceramic brake discs in China is projected to be between 7.3 to 11.5 billion yuan by 2026, marking the industry's transition from 0 to 1 in terms of volume [2][27] - The global market for aircraft carbon-ceramic brake discs is expected to reach approximately 2 billion USD by 2030 [2] 3. Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain for carbon-ceramic brake discs consists of upstream raw material supply, midstream manufacturing, and downstream automotive applications [28] - The cost structure indicates that raw materials account for over 40% of total costs, with carbon fiber being the largest single expense [31] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that establish a first-mover advantage in capacity expansion and customer acquisition, such as Jinbo Co., Tianyi New Materials, and Jinqilin [2][44] 5. Company Profiles - Jinbo Co. has established a production line capable of 400,000 brake discs and is collaborating with major electric vehicle manufacturers [44] - Tianyi New Materials is targeting mass production projects with leading new energy vehicle companies and has a planned capacity of 600,000 brake discs [44] - Jinqilin is primarily serving the aftermarket in China while also providing original equipment to international clients [44]