Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron alloy market shows a complex situation with multiple contradictory factors. There is a contradiction between high supply and weak demand, as well as between anti - in - group competition expectations and weak reality, and the improvement of the term structure is accompanied by capital withdrawal [1][2]. - The short - term iron alloy market may experience a callback. Although the term structure has improved and some contract structures have changed from premium to discount, the lack of substantial progress in anti - in - group competition increases the risk of a sharp rise followed by a fall [2][13]. - The supply and demand of iron alloy are expected to decline. The production profit has been falling, and the demand is affected by the inventory accumulation of downstream products, which restricts the increase in demand for iron alloy [67]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - High supply and weak demand: Iron alloy production profit has declined since early September, but production remains at a high level, while downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the inventory of five major steel products has started to accumulate [1]. - Cost support, electricity price increase, and manganese ore supply disturbances: The electricity price in Ningxia has increased, and the spot price of ferrosilicon in some areas is lower than the cost. Although the manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, short - term disturbances need attention [1]. - Improvement of term structure and capital withdrawal: The term structure of iron alloy has improved, but the term structure of coking coal has not. The trading volume of iron alloy has decreased, with the total position of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreasing for three consecutive weeks [2]. - Contradiction between anti - in - group competition expectations and weak reality: There is still an expectation of supply - side contraction, but the lack of substantial action increases the risk of a sharp rise followed by a fall [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: The iron alloy market may experience a short - term callback. The price range of the ferrosilicon 2511 contract is 5400 - 6400, and that of the ferromanganese 01 contract is 5500 - 6500. It is recommended to lightly test long positions near 5550 for the ferrosilicon 11 contract and near 5800 for the ferromanganese 01 contract [13]. - Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations: The basis is expected to narrow slightly, and there is no current basis strategy. It is not recommended to bottom - fish the 1 - 5 monthly spread immediately. The recommended hedging arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 01 spread of double - silicon near - 400 [16]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The price range of ferrosilicon is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, and that of ferromanganese is 5300 - 6000 [17]. - Hedging recommendations: For inventory management, it is recommended to short iron alloy futures to lock in profits; for procurement management, it is recommended to buy iron alloy futures to lock in procurement costs [17]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a work plan for the stable growth of the steel industry. Yunnan steel enterprises have taken substantial steps in anti - in - group competition, and a steel mill in Jiangsu has raised the ferrosilicon procurement price [18]. - Bearish information: The US will impose new high - tariff measures on imported products, and the inventory of ferromanganese enterprises has increased [19]. - Spot transaction information: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions have shown different degrees of increase or decrease [20]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - It is necessary to pay attention to the specific changes in the Gabonese ore shipments and their impact on the manganese ore price, which in turn affects the cost of ferromanganese [22]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital movement: The iron alloy price showed a doji on Friday. The closing price of the ferrosilicon 11 contract decreased by 1.32% week - on - week, and the total position decreased by 14.39%. The closing price of the ferromanganese 01 contract decreased by 1.94% week - on - week, and the total position decreased by 9.12% for three consecutive weeks [23]. - Term structure: The term structure of iron alloy has improved, but the term structure of coking coal has deepened, which is bearish for the iron alloy price in the short term [27]. - Basis and monthly spread: The basis of iron alloy fluctuates slightly, and there is no recommended positive - spread strategy. It is not recommended to bottom - fish the 1 - 5 monthly spread immediately, and the 1 - 5 monthly spread may further weaken [16][28]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industry Chain - The profit of iron alloy has declined after a rebound. The downstream inventory of coking coal needs replenishment, which supports the coking coal price, but the increasing import pressure of coking coal will affect the cost of iron alloy [41]. - The profit of ferromanganese has remained relatively stable because its cost is mainly related to manganese ore, and the manganese ore price has been fluctuating at a low level due to sufficient supply [59]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The export profit of ferrosilicon is gradually declining, and the export volume is expected to decrease [64]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Supply: The production profit of iron alloy has been falling, and the production is expected to decline, especially with the possible reduction in the output of ferromanganese in the southern production area during the flat - water season [67]. - Demand: Although the demand is expected to increase seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, the profit of downstream products has declined, and the inventory has accumulated, which restricts the increase in demand for iron alloy [67]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipts are expected to continue to be destocked, and the total inventory will maintain a slow destocking trend [68]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The production profit of ferrosilicon has declined significantly, and the output is expected to decline slightly. The production profit of ferromanganese is relatively stable, and the output is expected to remain stable or decline slightly [69]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The demand for iron alloy is affected by the inventory accumulation of downstream products and the decline in the profit of steel products, and the steel - making demand may decline. The decline in the export profit of ferrosilicon will also affect its export volume [73]. 5.4 Inventory - Side and Deduction - Given the high operating rate of iron alloy and weak downstream demand, the enterprise inventory is likely to continue to accumulate, but the warehouse receipts are expected to be destocked, and the total inventory will maintain a slow destocking trend [89].
南华期货铁合金周报：成本支撑-20250928
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-28 13:03