Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the sugar price trend include the import rhythm, low domestic sugar inventory, typhoon damage, weakening Brazilian support, and the expected increase in production in India and Thailand [2][3]. - The near - term trading logic of SR2511 is mainly based on the import sugar price, and the pressure from the start of sugar beet production in the north has narrowed the 11 - 01 contract spread [6]. - The long - term trading logic of SR2601 is affected by the supply pressure of imported sugar and syrup premix, the expected difference in the new season's production, and the expected increase in production in India and Thailand [8]. - The downward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is weakening but may strengthen in the future. The K - line price is in a short - position arrangement, and the position has decreased approaching the National Day holiday [10]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The market is mainly trading the import rhythm, and attention should be paid to the change in out - of - quota import profit and the import of syrup and premix [2]. - Low domestic sugar inventory supports the price, but the sales volume in August was lower than expected, and the final inventory may not support the price effectively [2]. - Typhoon "Huajiaisha" damaged the sugarcane, but the impact is less than that of "Mojie" last year, and the final loss may be limited [2]. - The bullish support from Brazil is weakening, and the 26/27 season is expected to have a recovery increase in production [3]. - The expected increase in production in India and Thailand suppresses the upper limit of the sugar price, and India may export 150 - 200 tons in the new year [3]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The downward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is weakening but may strengthen in the future. The K - line price is in a short - position arrangement, and the position has decreased approaching the National Day holiday [10]. - The basis strategy is to sell spot and buy 2511 futures to lock in the basis return profit; the spread strategy has no recommendation [11]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of sugar is 5200 - 5700, with a current volatility of 6.19% and a historical percentile of 2.2% in 3 years [12]. - Different hedging strategies are recommended for different scenarios such as high inventory and low inventory [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The unilateral long position of SR2511 has been stopped out; selling spot and buying SR2511 has been entered; the long - short spread of SR2511 and SR2601 has left the market [15]. Typhoon "Huajiaisha" affected the sugarcane in Guangdong and Guangxi; the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased; Brazilian sugar exports in the first three weeks of September decreased compared with the same period last year [16]. - Negative Information: Sugar mills in Inner Mongolia have started production, and the production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be flat or slightly increase; the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the first half of September in central and southern Brazil are expected to increase; the sugar production in the 2026/27 season in central and southern Brazil is expected to increase by 5.7% [17]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - The weekly number of sugar ships waiting to be transported and the number of ships in Brazilian ports (Thursday, Beijing time) [18]. - Brazilian sugar export data for September (Tuesday, Beijing time) [21]. - The sales data and industrial inventory data of domestic sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan in September at the beginning of October [21]. - The crushing data in the first ten days of September in central and southern Brazil [21]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: The futures price rebounded from 5424 points and regained the 5500 support level. The position of the main contract SR2601 decreased after seasonal growth. The short - hedging position decreased, and foreign capital had more short positions. The 5500 level is a key position [22]. - Basis and Spread Structure: The basis of the 11th contract may further expand. The market shows a back structure, and the 11 - 01 spread will rise and then fall [24]. - Foreign Market: The sugar price rebounded due to the typhoon, but the impact is limited. The overseas raw sugar price may fall to 15 cents, and the position has reached a record high, with an increase in non - commercial short positions [26]. - Spread Structure: The raw sugar futures show a near - strong and far - weak back structure, which is unfavorable for sugar mills to hedge, but they still need to find appropriate opportunities [28]. - Internal and External Spread Tracking: The internal and external prices are weak. The out - of - quota import window on the disk is sometimes open and sometimes closed, and the spot import window is open. The Zhengzhou sugar price may be under pressure [31]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - China is a net importer of sugar and has a quota system. The out - of - quota import profit of Brazilian sugar has been shrinking, and the import window has been closed. The import of syrup and premix from other Asian countries has increased, and the data in August shows an upward trend in Thai premix [33]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - For the 24/25 season, the estimated carry - over inventory is 66.97 tons, the estimated cumulative import is 470 tons, and the estimated import of syrup and premix is 110 tons [36]. - For the 25/26 season, the estimated domestic sugar production is 1120 tons, and other data are estimated based on the 24/25 season [36].
南华期货白糖产业周报：进入亚洲供应期-20250928
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-28 13:11