A股策略周思考：国庆假期：持币Or持股？

Market Analysis - The market shows a calendar effect around the National Day holiday, with a median return of -0.81% in the five trading days before the holiday and a strong median return of 2.27% in the first five trading days after the holiday, with an 80% win rate [1][11][12] - Post-holiday, small-cap indices lead the gains in the first phase, while the second phase sees a general pullback, followed by a resurgence in small-cap performance in the third phase, and a stronger performance from large-cap indices in the fourth phase [2][16][18] Domestic Economic Indicators - Industrial enterprise profits saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.40% in August, with cumulative profits turning positive for the first eight months of the year [3][27] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery, highlighting challenges such as insufficient domestic demand [3][38][39] - The transportation sector shows a decline in subway passenger volume, indicating potential shifts in consumer behavior [3][41] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index growth aligns with market expectations, indicating stable inflationary pressures, with a probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October at 87.7% [4][53][54] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main directions: breakthroughs in AI technology, economic recovery with a "stronger stronger" market style, and the continued rise of undervalued sectors [5][56]