南华期货LPG产业周报：估值修复-20250928

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting LPG price trends include cost - end crude oil fluctuations due to supply - demand and geopolitical issues, a strong outer - market propane with a large internal - external price difference, and a relatively loose domestic fundamental situation with stable supply - demand, slightly improved chemical demand, and weak combustion demand. PG10/11 mostly follows outer - market propane and crude oil, and with the rebound of crude oil and improved domestic sentiment, the low - level valuation of the disk has been repaired [2]. - The near - end trading logic is that the domestic market remains loose, chemical demand has slightly improved, and the outer - market price is still relatively strong. With the rebound of crude oil, the domestic market has rebounded from the low level. The far - end is affected by macro factors, outer - market seasonal demand, and the possible weakening of chemical demand [4][7]. - The market is expected to be in a volatile state. The price range of PG11 is predicted to be between 4200 - 4600. Different trading strategies are proposed, including base - spread, month - spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end crude oil is under pressure from supply surplus and geopolitical disturbances, leading to increased volatility. Outer - market propane has been strong in the past month, with a converted RMB - inclusive price of 4700 - 4750 yuan/ton and a large internal - external price difference. The domestic fundamental situation is loose, with stable supply - demand, slightly improved chemical demand, and weak combustion demand [2]. - Near - end: The domestic market is loose, chemical demand has slightly improved, the outer - market price is still relatively strong, and the domestic market has rebounded from the low level due to crude oil rebound. Far - end: It is affected by macro factors, outer - market seasonal demand, and the possible weakening of chemical demand [4][7]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: The market is in a volatile state, and the price range of PG11 is 4200 - 4600 [11]. - Base - Spread Strategy: It is expected to shrink in a volatile manner. Chemical demand is expected to weaken, combustion demand is still weak, the spot side is under pressure, and the disk has room for valuation repair [11]. - Month - Spread Strategy: Sell high and conduct reverse arbitrage. The short - term is expected to be in a volatile pattern. Recently, the disk has shown a positive arbitrage trend due to the rebound of the near - month contract [12]. - Hedging Arbitrage Strategy: Buy PP and sell PG at low prices. There are many maintenance plans for the PP end and PDH in October, and PDH profits have room to expand. Also, pay attention to the impact of US demand - inventory changes and Sino - US relations on the outer - market regional price difference after the National Day [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory Management: When inventory is high and worried about price drops, short - sell PG futures (PG2511) to lock in profits and sell call options (PG2511C4600) to collect premiums and reduce costs [14]. - Procurement Management: When procurement inventory is low, buy PG futures (PG2511) at low prices to lock in procurement costs and sell put options (PG2511P4200) to collect premiums and reduce costs [14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Crude oil rebounded due to issues such as Russian sanctions conflicts. In the industrial sector, the arrival of goods decreased slightly due to typhoons, ports destocked, and chemical demand and production increased slightly [20]. - Negative Information: Spot prices dropped this week due to typhoons and refinery inventory reduction [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - September 30: China's official manufacturing PMI. October 1: US September ISM manufacturing data (expected 49.2, higher than the previous value of 48.7). October 3: US unemployment rate, non - farm employment and other economic data [21]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: The PG11 contract fluctuated and rose this week, mainly following the crude oil price for valuation repair. Major profitable seats reduced their net positions but increased their cumulative profits. The top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list did not change significantly. The net short positions of some seats decreased slightly, while foreign investors increased their net short positions slightly and retail investors increased their net long positions slightly. Technically, on the daily chart, PG11 entered the previously mentioned volatile range (4200 - 4450), and on the hourly chart, it was at the upper Bollinger Band at the Friday close [18]. - Base - Spread and Month - Spread Structure: The LPG month - to - month structure remained in a BACK structure, becoming steeper than last week. The 10 - 11 month spread was 148 yuan/ton, widening by 83 yuan/ton compared to last week, due to the concentrated reduction of short positions in the October contract [23]. 3.2 Outer - Market Situation - Single - Side Trend: FEI M1 closed at 545 dollars/ton (- 2), with the premium slightly widening to - 12.25 dollars/ton; CP M1 closed at 544 dollars/ton (+ 2), with the discount remaining at - 5 dollars/ton; MB M1 closed at 380 dollars/ton (+ 7) [25]. - Month - Spread Structure: FEI M1 - M2 was - 9.10 dollars/ton (- 3.10), CP M1 - M2 was - 14.94 dollars/ton (- 3.9), and MB M1 - M2 was - 3.69 dollars/ton (- 2.17) [31]. - Regional Price - Difference Tracking: The regional price difference was generally volatile this week, and the FEI - MOPJ price difference weakened again [34]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Upstream Profits: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 823.98 yuan/ton (- 98.7), and that of Shandong local refineries was 204.72 yuan/ton (- 73.48). With high refinery profits, the output of liquefied gas increased [37]. - Downstream Profits: The PDH - to - monomer profit calculated by FEI was - 215 yuan/ton (- 65), and the PDH profit calculated by CP was - 170 yuan/ton (- 129), with greater losses in PP production. MTBE gas - separation profit was - 61 yuan/ton (- 6.75), isomerization profit was - 99 (+ 73), and alkylation oil profit was - 60.50 yuan/ton (+ 77) [39][40]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The outer - market spot price weakened slightly this week, and the import profit increased slightly [42]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory 5.1 Overseas Supply - Demand - US Supply - Demand: The US is still in a stock - building state this week. After the National Day, demand is expected to increase seasonally. From January to August, the US exported 45450 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 3.61%, with a 38% year - on - year decrease in exports to China. The export volume remained high in August and September, while the volume to China remained low [46][53]. - Middle East Supply: From January to August, the Middle East exported 31745 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 1.55%, with a 0.88% year - on - year decrease in exports to India and a 22.41% year - on - year increase in exports to China. The overall shipment was neutral [57]. - India Supply - Demand: From January to August, India's LPG demand was 21487 kt, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, and its LPG import was 13959 kt, a year - on - year increase of 7.38%. The second half of the year is the seasonal peak season in India, and demand and imports are expected to remain high [61]. - South Korea Supply: South Korea's LPG demand has no obvious seasonality. From May to August, its LPG import remained high, with some re - export demand in May and June. The propane cracking profit is better than that of naphtha, and imports are expected to remain relatively high [65]. - Japan Supply - Demand: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and its demand and imports have obvious seasonality. As the weather turns cold, imports are expected to increase, and they are still neutral in September and October [73]. 5.2 Domestic Supply - Demand - Domestic Supply - Demand Balance: Supply: Domestic LPG output is expected to remain high due to high refinery profits, and imports may decrease slightly in October due to possible weakening chemical demand. Demand: Chemical demand will decrease slightly, and combustion demand will increase slightly. Inventory: Overall, inventory will increase slightly [81]. - Domestic Supply: The operating rate of major refineries is 80.27% (- 1.25%), and that of independent refineries is 53.49% (+ 1.64%). The domestic LPG sales volume this week was 53.92 tons (+ 0.07), and the port arrival volume was 53 (- 19.55). Inventory continued to increase, with factory inventory at 18.81 tons (+ 0.78) and port inventory at 313.66 tons (- 9.74) [86]. - Domestic Demand: PDH demand: Wanhua Penglai has increased production, and Zhenhua has restarted. Attention should be paid to the maintenance situation in October. MTBE demand: The operating rate has slightly increased due to the resumption of production at Dongming Qianhai, and exports still provide support. Alkylation oil demand: The operating rate has slightly increased due to the resumption of production at Ningxia Baichuan. Combustion demand: It is expected to increase slightly [93][95][100].