IMO净零法案即将提交，绿色甲醇有望迎来快速发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The upcoming IMO net-zero framework is expected to significantly boost the demand for green methanol, particularly driven by the shipping industry's urgent need to reduce carbon emissions [21][35]. - The report highlights the importance of clean energy non-electric utilization as a means to alleviate pressure on energy consumption, with a focus on expanding the use of renewable energy in various sectors [2][22]. - The cost reduction potential for electro-methanol production is substantial, with green electricity prices being a critical factor in achieving economic viability [3][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Green Methanol Demand Drivers - The shipping industry's carbon reduction needs are pressing, with the IMO's net-zero framework set to be submitted in October 2025 and expected to take effect in 2027, potentially increasing green methanol demand [21][35]. - The current CO2 emissions from the shipping industry account for approximately 3% of global emissions, projected to rise to about 5% by 2050 if not addressed [21][35]. - As of February 2025, there are 50 operational methanol-fueled vessels globally, with new orders totaling 250 vessels, indicating a projected annual demand of 6.93 million tons of methanol once all new vessels are delivered [35][41]. 2. Clean Energy Non-Electric Utilization - The National Energy Administration emphasizes the need to expand non-electric utilization of renewable energy to alleviate grid pressure, with a focus on technologies like green hydrogen and methanol production [2][22]. - As of mid-2025, the utilization rates for wind and solar energy in China are 93.8% and 94.7%, respectively, indicating a slight decline year-on-year [2]. 3. Cost Reduction Potential - The current production cost of green methanol is approximately 4,000 RMB per ton, with significant cost reduction potential through advancements in technology and lower green electricity prices [3][39]. - If green electricity prices drop to 0.1 RMB/kWh and CO2 costs are at 200 RMB/ton, the production cost of green methanol could decrease to 1,618 RMB/ton, making it economically viable [3][39]. 4. Industry Performance - The report notes that the domestic green methanol production capacity is growing rapidly, with 173 projects signed or filed as of August 2025, totaling a planned capacity of 53.46 million tons per year [32]. - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in green methanol production, including Jin Feng Technology, Jiaze New Energy, and others, as potential investment opportunities [10].