政策不确定加剧，期待四季度季节性行情

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the US soybean market faces dual impacts of yield and exports. Yield reduction is likely, but the extent is uncertain. The outcome of China-US economic and trade talks in November will significantly affect US soybean exports. CBOT soybeans are expected to continue to oscillate in a wide range between 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [1][22][113]. - South American soybean exports and planting progress may impact the international soybean market in the fourth quarter. Brazilian soybean exports to China may range from 1000 - 1200 million tons. Brazilian basis fluctuations are crucial, and the possibility of a "dry south and wet north" situation due to La Nina should be monitored [23][37][113]. - Although the arrival of domestic soybeans will gradually decrease in the fourth quarter, supply concerns may ease with effective supply supplements. Domestic soybean meal demand is expected to increase steadily, and inventory reduction may start in November. The basis of soybean meal may recover from a low level, and the fluctuation range of the January contract of Dalian soybean meal may be between 2850 - 3200 yuan per ton [1][54][113]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply of the US soybean oil market is expected to increase significantly, and the inventory will increase steadily. The market is waiting for the implementation of energy policies, and the downward space for US soybean oil may narrow [2][67][114]. - Malaysian palm oil may experience a seasonal upward trend in the fourth quarter. Excessive rainfall may cause an early start of the production reduction cycle in October. Export may be temporarily affected, but the tight supply - demand balance sheet of Indonesian palm oil provides support [2][85][114]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand differentiation of domestic oils is prominent. The supply of soybean oil may decline in October, and the inventory inflection point may occur at the end of the year. Palm oil inventory will accumulate significantly, while rapeseed oil inventory reduction will accelerate [2][111][115]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Market Review - In the third quarter, CBOT soybeans showed a range - bound oscillation, with a reverse "N" shape. Domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell. International oils showed a differentiated trend, with US soybean oil rising and then falling, and Malaysian palm oil rising [5][6]. - From June 30 to September 25, 2025, the prices of US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil declined, while Malaysian palm oil, Dalian soybean oil, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil prices increased [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Protein Meal 3.2.1 US Soybeans: Uncertain Supply - Demand Pattern Due to Poor Exports - The yield of US soybeans may be adjusted downward in the USDA report after October, and the export situation depends on China - US economic and trade talks. If China restarts purchasing US soybeans, exports may remain stable; otherwise, they may be further reduced [11][14][18]. - US soybean crushing remains strong, but the room for further increase in crushing volume is limited, and the 2025/26 annual crushing demand is likely to remain at the current level [16][17]. 3.2.2 South American Soybeans: Increased Market Turbulence Due to Export and Weather - In 2025, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record high of 110 million tons. Argentina's soybean export policy is volatile, and the possibility of a second export tax cancellation cannot be ruled out [23][27][30]. - The probability of La Nina occurring from October to December has increased, which may lead to a "dry south and wet north" situation. Brazil's soybean planting has started, but there are weather risks in some areas [32][33]. - Brazilian basis is affected by China - US tariff policies. If China purchases US soybeans, Brazilian basis may decline; otherwise, it may rise [36][37]. 3.2.3 Domestic Soybean Meal: Supply Concerns May Ease, but Cost - Driven Factors Remain - With the increase in Argentine soybean imports, the supply of domestic soybeans in the fourth quarter is expected to increase, and supply concerns may ease [40]. - Domestic soybean meal demand has increased steadily, but there is a suspicion of over - consuming future demand. The inventory inflection point has not yet arrived, and inventory reduction may start in November [45][48]. - The basis of soybean meal may recover from a low level in November, and the fluctuation range of the January contract of Dalian soybean meal may be between 2850 - 3200 yuan per ton [49][54]. 3.3 Third Part: Oils 3.3.1 US Soybean Oil: Awaiting Policy Implementation with Uncertain Policy Outlook - The demand for US soybean oil has remained high in 2025, but the implementation of biodiesel policies in October is crucial for future demand [59][61]. - From October, US soybean oil will enter an inventory - building cycle, and the inventory will increase steadily [61]. 3.3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil: Early Entry into Production Reduction Cycle, Supply Concerns Boost the Market - In the fourth quarter, Southeast Asian palm oil will transition to a production reduction cycle. Excessive rainfall may cause an early start of the production reduction cycle in Malaysia [70][75]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil is uncertain due to India's increased purchase of Argentine soybean oil. However, Indonesia's tight supply - demand balance sheet provides support [77][79]. - In the fourth quarter, the Southeast Asian palm oil market will enter a de - stocking stage, and Malaysian palm oil may experience a seasonal upward trend [84][85]. 3.3.3 Domestic Oils: Supply - Demand Structure Differentiation, Accelerated Rapeseed Oil Inventory Reduction - As of September 20, the inventory of domestic oils has not yet started to decline. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of oils is relatively abundant, but there are significant differences among varieties [88]. - Domestic oil demand has declined. In the fourth quarter, the demand for oils may enter a small peak, but expectations should not be too high [91]. - The supply of domestic soybean oil may decline in October, and the inventory inflection point may occur at the end of the year. Palm oil inventory will accumulate significantly, while rapeseed oil inventory reduction will accelerate [95][100][108]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - The conclusions are consistent with the core views of the report, emphasizing the uncertainties and trends in the protein meal and oil markets in the fourth quarter [113][114][115].