政策交易后期，价格震荡前行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The apparent inventory-to-sales ratio of the industrial silicon industry in Q3 has dropped below 200%. In Q4, the industrial silicon price may fluctuate in the range of (8,000, 10,000) yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to possible supply-side policy impacts [2][81]. - Since 2025, the polysilicon futures price has fluctuated. In Q4, if the supply side can actively contract, the polysilicon price may be supported; otherwise, the supply-demand imbalance will worsen, and the price may decline. The estimated fluctuation range for Q4 is (45,000, 58,000) yuan/ton [3][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market Review - Industrial Silicon: In Q1, the futures price initially rose, then declined after the news of the resumption of production by leading northwest factories. In Q2, the price dropped due to cost reduction during the wet season. In July, the price rebounded significantly, followed by a quick correction and then entered a volatile state [5][6]. - Polysilicon: In Q1, the spot price was stable, but the futures price started to decline in March. From April to June, the price dropped sharply, then rebounded in July due to anti - involution policies, and maintained a relatively strong volatile state in August and September [8][10]. 2. Silicon Industry Chain Fundamental Analysis (1) Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - In 2025, the industrial silicon futures - spot basis was mostly positive. In September, the basis of 4210 entered the negative range, and the positive futures - spot arbitrage window opened for nearly a month, which may increase the number of warehouse receipts [13]. (2) Industrial Silicon Industry Cost and Element Changes - The average production cost of the industrial silicon industry has been decreasing since 2025, from 12,146.8 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 9,093.28 yuan/ton. After Q3, the coal price rebounded, but the average cost remained stable at around 9,000 yuan/ton. The future cost may be mainly affected by electricity, with the overall average cost gradually increasing, while the cost in the northwest may change little [16][19]. (3) Industrial Silicon Production Enterprises - From January to July 2025, the average production profit of the industrial silicon industry was negative, and the开工率 was compressed. After the wet season, the开工 rate increased. The output in August reached 370,000 tons, may rise to about 420,000 tons in September, and is likely to remain high in October, then decrease in November and December [24]. (4) Downstream Demand: Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Industry Chain - Price and Spread Changes: Since the listing of polysilicon futures, the basis has fluctuated greatly. In H1 2025, the prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and modules generally declined, with a slight rebound in March - April. After July, the prices of silicon wafers and cells rebounded significantly, while the component price was under pressure in Q3 and is expected to continue to be so in Q4 [28][30]. - Production Situation: In H1 2025, the average production profit of the polysilicon industry was negative, and the开工率 was low. After July, the profit and开工率 increased rapidly. The production profit of silicon wafers and cells improved in Q3, but the profitability in Q4 may not be optimistic. The output of silicon wafers and cells in September was about 58GW and 55GW respectively, and there is a possibility of a decline in November and December [34][40]. - Terminal Demand Expectation: From January to August 2025, the domestic new installed capacity of photovoltaic modules increased year - on - year, but the monthly installed capacity declined significantly after June. The export demand was low from January to July, but increased in August. After September, the export demand is likely to decline [45][47]. - Inventory Situation: As of September 19, 2025, the total inventory of polysilicon reached 265,780 tons. The downstream silicon wafers and cells enterprises maintained low inventories, and the inventory of silicon wafers increased in September [49]. (5) Downstream Demand: Organic Silicon Industry Chain - Price and Profit: In 2025, the organic silicon price generally declined, with a short - term rebound in February - March. The industry's production profit was mostly negative, and the average gross margin was about - 17% at the end of September [53]. - Production and Demand: The开工率 of organic silicon enterprises was low in H1 2025 and increased in July - August. The inventory of organic silicon enterprises remained stable, mainly due to the expansion of the electronics industry and the adjustment of the开工率 [60][64]. (6) Downstream Demand: Aluminum Alloy and Export - Aluminum Alloy: In 2025, the demand for aluminum alloy increased steadily, and the price fluctuated mainly driven by the aluminum price. The output increased significantly year - on - year, but the profit was poor. The demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry increased steadily [67]. - Export: From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 491,400 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The export volume increased significantly after June [74]. (7) Industrial Silicon Inventory - In 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was initially high, but the apparent inventory started to decline after May. After July, the total futures - spot inventory remained around 690,000 tons, while the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises increased [77]. 3. Outlook and Operational Suggestions - Industrial Silicon: In Q4, the apparent inventory - to - sales ratio may increase compared to Q3 but may not reach the level of Q2. The price may fluctuate in the range of (8,000, 10,000) yuan/ton [81]. - Polysilicon: In Q4, the adjustment of the polysilicon enterprises'开工率 will have a significant impact on the price. The estimated fluctuation range is (45,000, 58,000) yuan/ton [83].