降息周期开启，金银强势突破

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, precious metals are expected to maintain a high - level, volatile, and bullish trend. The core drivers are the Fed's policy path, geopolitical risks, and physical demand support. Gold jewelry demand may recover during the traditional consumption peak season in October, and investors' willingness to allocate gold and related products may increase. The prices of gold and silver may rise if the Fed continues to send loose signals or geopolitical conflicts escalate; otherwise, strong US economic data and rising inflation may suppress their performance. Technically, the core fluctuation range of COMEX gold is 3550 - 4000 US dollars per ounce (corresponding to 810 - 900 yuan per gram for Shanghai gold), and that of silver is 42 - 50 US dollars per ounce (corresponding to 9800 - 11800 yuan per kilogram for Shanghai silver). [4][76] Summary of Relevant Chapters 1. Review of the Futures Market - Price Trends of Gold and Silver: In Q3 2025, the precious metals market first fluctuated and then soared. From July to August, prices consolidated at the bottom, and in September, they rose sharply due to the Fed's interest rate cut, rising risk - aversion, and capital inflows. As of September 27, New York gold reached a high of 3824.6 US dollars per ounce and closed at 3789.8 US dollars per ounce; Shanghai gold hit a record high of 865.28 yuan per gram and closed at 862.50 yuan per gram. New York silver broke through 45 US dollars per ounce, reaching a high of 46.945 US dollars per ounce and closing at 46.365 US dollars per ounce; Shanghai silver exceeded 10,000 yuan per kilogram, hitting a high of 10974 yuan per kilogram and closing at 10936 yuan per kilogram. Since September, the cumulative increase of silver has exceeded 10%. [3][7] - Gold - Silver Ratio: The current gold - silver ratio is about 82 (domestic) and 85 (overseas), higher than the historical average, indicating that silver is undervalued and has substantial room for a catch - up. Historically, a high gold - silver ratio is followed by silver's catch - up, and the recent strong performance of silver reflects this repair logic. [14] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - Fed's September Meeting: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% in September, in line with market expectations. Most officials expect two more 25 - basis - point cuts in 2025 and one in 2026, but there are differences among officials. The removal of Fed governor Cook by President Trump has added political and legal uncertainties to the Fed's decision - making. [20][21] - Geopolitical Risks: In Q3, the Middle East conflict intensified, and the Israel - Houthi armed conflict affected trade. The Russia - Ukraine conflict entered a new stage, with the US changing its stance and increasing military aid to Ukraine, and the confrontation between the two sides becoming more entrenched. Geopolitical uncertainties have increased market risk - aversion and may drive up the prices of precious metals. [23][26] - Inflation: In August, US PPI data showed a slowdown in inflation, while CPI data indicated that inflation was still controllable. PPI's slowdown provided room for the Fed to cut interest rates, and CPI's stability reduced the risk of policy reversal. [28][29] - US Economic Signals: The Q2 2025 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, mainly driven by consumer spending and net exports. However, the labor market was weak, with August's non - farm payrolls falling far short of expectations, the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, and employment structure deteriorating. In the short term, weak employment data increased the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts; in the long term, it may support precious metals. The manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range, while the non - manufacturing PMI expanded. The 8 - month PCE price index was in line with expectations, and the market expected further rate cuts by the Fed. [31][34][36] - Real Interest Rates and the US Dollar Index: In Q3 2025, the 10 - year real interest rate and inflation expectations declined, and the US dollar index fell and is now fluctuating around 97. [51][52] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis of Precious Metals - Gold: In Q2 2025, the global gold market had both supply and demand increasing, with the price hitting a record high. Supply totaled 1,249 tons, with mined gold production reaching a quarterly record high and recycled gold supply increasing. Investment demand was the core driver, with gold ETFs having strong inflows for two consecutive quarters, and central bank gold purchases supporting the market. High prices led to a decline in jewelry and technology gold demand. [54] - Silver: In 2025, the global silver market is expected to have a slight decline in total demand but a significant structural differentiation. Industrial demand remains strong, and there is a supply - demand gap. In 2024, silver supply increased moderately, and demand was structurally differentiated, with industrial demand hitting a record high. In 2025, total supply is expected to increase by 2% to 1.0306 billion ounces, total demand to drop slightly by 1% to 1.1483 billion ounces, and the supply - demand gap to reach 117.6 million ounces. [58][59] 4. Analysis of Positions, Inventories, and Seasonality - ETF Positions: In August 2025, global gold ETFs had inflows for the third consecutive month, with Western markets leading. North America had the largest inflow, followed by Europe, while Asia had outflows. [62] - CFTC Positions: As of the week ending September 16, 2025, the non - commercial net long position of gold futures on the CFTC increased, indicating a rise in the market's bullish sentiment towards gold, while the non - commercial net long position of silver futures decreased, suggesting a rise in the market's bearish sentiment towards silver. [69] - Inventory Analysis: As of September 24, 2025, COMEX gold and silver inventories increased compared to the end of Q2 2025, while SHFE gold inventory increased and silver inventory decreased. [72]